Unlike now sober Reagan, Trump has taken credit for the economy since the first day.
In the winter and spring of 1981, Ronald Reagan took office and advanced through a large-scale tax reduction, reducing domestic expenses and an increase in military-supplying military expenses, while the chairman of the federal reserve system Paul Volker ripped interest rates. By the summer, the economy headed for the recession, and my chief, chairman Henry Fire from the joint economic committee, began to demand to find out whether she had taken the new responsibility administration. “Oh, no!” They replied, “Our program did not come into force!”
The parallels since 2025 are more obvious than the real ones. CBO projects that Trump’s tax reducing will add public debt to 4.1 trillion. Dollars, but this is based only on a ridiculous prerequisite, which otherwise the 2017 tax reduction will end. In reality, the tax bill was a relatively small change in the status of -quo. Cost reduction is a serious blow to Medicaid and SNAP, but small towards the economy. The military is also increasing. Deregulation is more serious, but the consequences – for example, on the environment – will take time to appear. Interest rates are high, but 5 percent not 20.
And there are tariffs. Reagan administration was free trade in principle, protectionist, if convenient. Trump is in principle very protectionist, but open to pressure from the real world, and therefore the final dictates in China and Mexico continue to linger. Its tariffs will allow some American manufacturers to raise prices and profits (good for jobs, poorly for consumers), except when they violate critical supply networks. The fact that they are now ubiquitous-galia, Germany, rare groundwater is what Trump and the Pentagon learn.
Unlike now sober Reagan, Trump has taken credit for the economy since the first day. This corresponds to its general worldview, but also with the tendency to magical thinking in the economy since the 1980s. Since then, the hypertensive economic policy (Clintonomics, Bidenomics) has greatly deepened, saturating each president with the mysterious forces rooted in force and allegedly distinctive ideas. But this sword with two ends, as Trump revealed when the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) dramatically revised the three -month jobs down. Trump reacted, shooting at the messenger, which was never in the Reagan because we defended BLS in a joint economic committee, holding unemployment hearings every month.
The Reagan people knew (and told me!) That they expected Volker to develop a deep recession. Monetors preferred this; The confrontation with the suppliers opposed; Chief Economist Reagan, Murray Weidenbaum, joked about the collision. Such splits that combine with the Trump-Scott team (bless his heart) really swing on Elon Musk? The element of good humor looks missing, as is the basic gloomy realism. It seems Trump constantly needs good news but not enjoy it; Roosevelt and Reagan he don’t.
Then there is an interest rate, as is the critical issue now. With state debt, greater than GDP, high interest rates are poured by cash owners, simultaneously fixing the housing market and the concentration of capitalization of shares at the most speculative (and potentially unstable) firms. Trump is right (so help me) that interest rates should decrease. But his public demands and threats returned Jerome Powell’s card to the corner: Powell could not fulfill without being “independence”. Only Congress can order the Fed to change the course, and the Congress is still out, and the Democrats on the wrong side of the issue. The contrast here since 1982 is sharp: this year Congress agitated at lower interest rates and eventually received them. (May 18, 1982, the Federal Open Market Committee in a Minute of Discussion Discussion, which overcomes the letter;
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Finally, there is foreign policy – a critical exponent for success or the failure of economic policy, since they do badly without life on Earth. In this matter, Reagan (in the second term) really bought himself – in my eyes – turning to the leadership of the Soviet Union and stopping the cold war. Trump has similar ambitions, but the results are not impressive. The watch is interested in this, with the Democrats again to the other question, and you can only hope for the best.
Well, as Marx was glorious in Eighteenth Brook Louis BonaparteHegel noticed somewhere that the great faces appeared again, but “he forgot to add, from the first case as a tragedy; on the second as a farce.” The Reagan Revolution was a bright dawn of the mystical era, the beginning of the management of neoliberal economists. Trump seems more desperately approaching rubble.
After all, by the way, the Reagan people agreed to take on Record Congress. It is called “the end of the world”:
Quite unexpectedly as vasserot
Without weapons Ambidextrian was illuminated
Coincidence between his thumb and second finger,
And Ralph Leo was engaged in bite
Neck Madame Sosman while the drum
Pointed and teenager was going to cough
In Wals-Taves waving Jock on the big fingers
Pretty unexpected to blow up:And there, there, there, there hung
These thousands of white faces, these stunned eyes,
There, in boundless darkness, equalization, guidance,
There with huge wings through the undulating sky,
There in the sudden darkness black pal
Nothing, nothing, nothing at all.
McLeysh, then at the end of his life, saw him and sent a letter; He was delighted.
