While Trudeau has weathered many storms, there are signs that his time may be running out.
For one thing, history is not on his side. Only one Canadian prime minister, Sir John Macdonald – the country’s first – has served four consecutive terms.
Trudeau is also working against falling popularity. A September Ipsos poll found that about two-thirds of Canadians disapprove of him. Only 26% of respondents said Trudeau was their top choice for prime minister, 19 points behind Conservative leader Poilieu.
And then there’s the gradual erosion of support within Trudeau’s own party. So far, at least 18 Liberal MPs have called on their leader to resign.
“He’s wrong to think we can go on like this,” New Brunswick MP Wayne Long told reporters this week.
“It’s unfair to us MPs, it’s unfair to ministers and most importantly it’s unfair to the country. We need to move on in a new direction and we need to reset.”
According to Long, who initiated Trudeau’s ouster, about 50 of the 153 Liberal MPs want him out of office immediately. There are roughly the same number of Trudeau loyalists, he said, and the rest are on the fence.
“There are still some supporters of the party who love him and, you know, want to support him,” Mr. Martin said. columnist from DC. “But if you had a secret ballot in the Liberal caucus on whether he should stay or not, he would be easily defeated.”
The prime minister also seemed forced to stay because of his disdain for his political opponent Poilieu, Mr Martin noted.
“He doesn’t want to back down and he wants to fight Pierre Poilevre, whom he hates,” he said.
Trudeau’s dogged persistence in the face of a bleak political outlook has drawn comparisons to outgoing US President Joe Biden, who abandoned his candidacy months before the November election only after mounting domestic pressure.
Professor Blake said Trudeau’s legacy, like Biden’s, will depend on how he leaves. A losing battle, he said, could leave Trudeau with a “long scar.” But the prime minister has an excellent ability to survive, he noted.
“He survived and he didn’t do what’s normal. Will it be normal – whatever it is – this time? Maybe, but I’m not convinced.”
Trudeau’s dilemma is also similar to that faced by his father, who won three consecutive elections and won a fourth less than a year after leaving power.
But in 1984, more than 15 years after first becoming prime minister, the elder Trudeau — like his son now — faced dire poll results. It seemed clear that he would not win the next election if he stayed. He decided to resign, telling the public that he made the decision after walking in a snowstorm in Ottawa.
Since then, the term “snow walk” has become synonymous with political resignation in Canada. It remains to be seen whether Trudeau will go it alone this Christmas.
