The minister’s remarks are similar, but more measured, than Somalia’s response to the Somaliland-Ethiopia deal in which recognition would be granted in exchange for access to the sea.
I’ve had late-night calls from Somalis who say they can’t sleep through the controversial proposal.
Somalia’s then Minister of the Environment, Aden Ibrahim Aw Hirsi, told me at the time: “In your reporting, you always talk about ‘political bombs’.
“People here are talking about a political earthquake. This is much more serious. It’s a tsunami.”
Turkey has since brokered an end to hostilities but the fact that Somalia recently signed a $600,000 (£492,000)-a-year deal with Washington’s top lobbying firm, the BGR Group, suggests that Somalia is concerned about relations with the incoming Trump administration.
USA last month abstained from voting on the UN Security Council resolution, external to fund the latest incarnation of the African Union intervention force in Somalia.
A key architect of Republican Africa thinking, especially when it comes to Somali issues, is Joshua Meservey, who recently moved from the Heritage Foundation to the rights-oriented Hudson Institute.
“The Somaliland case from the US perspective is very compelling,” he argues. “I think the issue of recognition will certainly be up for debate, although the guiding North Star is what, from a practical standpoint, is best in the U.S. national interest.”
Senior African officials under Trump, including former Assistant Secretary of State for Africa Tibor Nagy and Africa envoy Peter Pham, are strong supporters of Somaliland independence.
Like many American Republicans, Somaliland Foreign Minister Abdirahman Dahir Adan sees the relationship in transactional terms.
“If the deal is good for us, we will take it. If the US wants a military base here, we’ll give it to them.”
Proponents of recognition argue that Somaliland is in the zone of convergence of several US interests – economic, military and strategic.
Mr Meservi adds that the territory should be “rewarded” for adhering to democratic principles, not relying on foreign aid and having a small government.
Its long coastline runs along one of the busiest shipping lanes in the world.
Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels may have replaced Somali pirates as the area’s main disruptor, but the attacks remain a major threat to global trade and are pushing the region closer to war in the Middle East.
The scramble for foreign bases along the coast of the Horn of Africa is a concern for the US, which established its largest military facility on the continent in Djibouti in 2002.
Russia has its eyes on Port Sudan; The United Arab Emirates (UAE) has used Eritrea’s Asseb to fight the Houthis, while Djibouti is blocked from foreign forces, including the Chinese, who not only have a well-located military facility but also control a huge port.
Turkey’s largest foreign base stretches along the Somali coastline south of Mogadishu.
Dealing with a rising China is Trump’s top priority.
The US has accused the Chinese of interfering with its activities in Djibouti by shining lasers into the eyes of its air force pilots and wants to relocate.
He also wants to disrupt China’s Belt and Road Initiative, which is taking over most of Africa.
Whether you see it as part of Somaliland or Somalia, the Red Sea port of Berbera has a lot to offer as an alternative.
China is not there; indeed, he is outraged that Taiwan established diplomatic relations with the breakaway republic in 2020.
The UAE, a key US ally, operates the newly expanded port and hopes it will rival Djibouti’s.
During the Biden administration, top US officials, including the head of the US Africa Command (Africom), visited Berbera, which has a 4km airstrip ironically built by the Soviet Union during the Cold War.
It was later identified by the US as a space shuttle crash landing site – interesting given Trump ally Elon Musk’s obsession with space.
In 2022, the US National Defense Authorization Act was amended to include Somaliland, increasing security cooperation and potentially paving the way for stronger diplomatic and economic ties.
