Foreign Policy Analyst
AFPWhen Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi visits Washington and will meet with President Donald Trump later on Thursday, there will be some warm hugs and shared with laughter. But it won’t be everything.
For many years, Trump and Modi have developed a strong personal connection marked with high -profile meetings and joint performances. This time they will also hold a joint press press, the White House reports.
Since their first meeting in Washington in 2017, their bond has grown through other events, including joint performances at massive actions in Houston and Ahmedabad. Their chemistry stems from common worldviews and politics and mutual strategic attention to China’s opposition, concern, which also increased the broader partnership of the United States and India.
Not surprisingly, Trump often criticized India, but never criticized Modi.
And yes, during the fashion visitBoth leaders are likely to spend time reflecting the following steps in the US and India strategic partnership, which is already in a good place.
Modi is reported to be met by several Trump’s office, as well as US-American business leaders.
He can also meet SpaceX and Tesla Musk Chief. Modi, who is committed to scaling the electric vehicles in India, would be happy if Musk opened the Tesla factory in India.
Gets the imageNevertheless, the consciousness of Trump-Modi and the proud conversation about strategic partnerships can mask the sober reality: during the Modi’s visit, the relationship will enter the sharp relief with each leader, especially Trump, armed with the requirements.
Delhi knows Trump well. Many of the current Modi Cabinet also served during the previous term, which was blocked by part of the first Trump administration. This dating is demonstrated after Trump’s inauguration last month: Delhi publicly has signal Its willingness to reduce tariffs, return unregistered Indian immigrants and buy American oil.
He already has omitted Some tariffs and returned 104 undocumented Indians, with first aircraft arrive In India last week. These preventive steps are designed to prevent Trump to the specific requirements of India and reduce the likelihood of tension with the new Trump administration.
However, Trump may ask Modi to make additional reduction in tariffs to further discard the trade deficit and US services with India having turned up to $ 46 billion (£ 37.10 million) in recent years.
On Wednesday night, White House press secretary Carolyn confirmed that Trump had planned to announce mutual tariffs for other countries before meeting with Modi.
But the obstacle may be the opportunity: Modi may urge Trump to enter into bilateral negotiations on economic partnerships designed to reduce tariffs on both sides.
In recent years, Delhi has shown more and more willingness to pursue trading deals. The Trump administration may be more eagerly interlocutored than the Baden administration, which imposed the conditions related to environmental and environmental and employment, on new trade agreements.
Gets the imageTrump may also ask Modi to return more undocumented Indians. Given that some estimates put the number More than 700 000 – The third largest group in the US – it will be a difficult and delicate issue for Delhi to move.
Last week, Indian Foreign Minister Jashancar said Parliament The fact that the government worked with the US to make sure that Indian citizens did not do with deportation after reports of them were confused.
Trump can also urge Modi to buy more American oil.
In 2021 India was Upper destination For American oil exports, but the Russian invasion of Ukraine has brought major changes in the global oil markets and forced Delhi to increase cheap oil in a close partner of Russia. The price point will determine how much India oil is ready to buy in the US.
Modi can also come with your own energy: invest in Indian nuclear energy. Delhi In accordance His law on nuclear responsibility has announced a new nuclear energy mission, trying to exacerbate international interest in fuel.
India seeks to meet half of its energy requirements through renewable energy by 2030. Asking Trump to invest in nuclear fuel is a potential happy environment: it is cleaner than fossil fuels, but far from solar and wind energy that cannot hit Trump administration as an attractive investment.
The technology will probably also be discussed.
It was a fast -growing space for bilateral relations in the Biden era thanks to the 2022 implementation Initiative on critical and new technologies (Icet), which both sides view as a new cornerstone for strategic partnership. Icet is intended for direct supervision of two national security advisers – to avoid deepening in the bureaucracy – that is, each of them must be personally invested in it.
Modi will probably look for assurances from Trump and his national security advisers, Mike Waltz that they remain committed to it. Considering Washington’s emphasis on counteracting China, making India most of the technological global supply networks are likely to be.
Also at the Modi Technical Cooperation Front can take a step for Trump to maintain Visa H-1b. These visas are for highly skilled foreign workers exposed to some influential Trump fansThey were awarded a large number of Indian technology staff in the US.
Gets the imageOther countries may also arise during Modi’s conversations in Washington. Iran can be particularly large.
Delhi collaborates with Tehran to develop a port in Chabachor, part of a broader Indian communication strategy with Central Asia, through Iran and Afghanistan. But last week the US administration released the president memorandum Tathing Trump’s Maximum Pressure Company on Tehran, which hints at the removal of refusal for those who conduct commercial events in the cheb. Modi can seek clarity of what it means for Delhi.
Trump can also evaluate Modi’s position on a high foreign policy priority: the end of wars in Ukraine and Gaza.
Delhi is strongly interested in these wars that fell. Modi’s position about the war in Ukraine – calling for the end of the conflict without criticizing Putin and Russia – repeated in Trump.
India’s special relations with Russia and close ties with Israel can push Trump to play the role of a mediator. Modi is likely to be comfortable only if the parties perceive external mediation.
But despite some potentially delicate discussions this week, both leaders will want to keep a positive tone.
In this regard, the Indo-Pacific quads will be precisely what the doctor ordered.
Trump strongly supports this group consisting of the United States, India, Japan and Australia and focus on countering Beijing.
In his first term, Trump accepted the annual square meetings to the level of the Foreign Minister, and Biden raised them further to the level of the leaders.
It is planned that India will be held this year a square meeting, and Modi may invite Trump to Delhi to participate in this.
Trump is reportedly reported is not a big fan International Travels, but India is a trip that it will probably strive to make – deepen your personal relationship with Modi and promote a multifaceted bilateral partnership that goes beyond the transactional frame that will have a day in Washington this week.
Michael Kugelman – Director of the South Asia Institute in Wilson in Washington
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