The best-case scenario is that the Syrians, with the help of major players in the region, will find a way to create a post-war mood of national reconciliation, rather than a wave of looting and revenge that will drag the country into another war. Abu Mohammad al-Julani, the leader of the victorious HTSH, called on his people and all sects of Syria to respect each other.
His people eliminated the regime and he is the closest thing to the de facto leader of Syria.
However, there are dozens of armed groups in Syria that do not necessarily agree with him and want to seize power in their areas. In southern Syria, tribal militias did not recognize Assad’s order. They will not follow orders they don’t like from the new installation in Damascus.
In the eastern desert, the US saw enough of a threat from the remnants of the Islamic State group to launch waves of airstrikes. The Israelis, alarmed by the prospect of an Islamist state on their border, are striking the military infrastructure of the Syrian armed forces.
Perhaps it would be better to find a way to make the reformed Syrian Arab Army part of the solution in a country without much law and order. The ill-advised decision by the US in 2003 to disband the Iraqi armed forces had disastrous consequences.
In Turkey, President Erdogan should be pleased with what he sees.
Erdogan’s Turkey has done more than any other power to preserve the autonomy of Idlib province, where HTS has been growing into a fighting force when Syria appears to be in deep freeze.
Erdogan may see his influence extend beyond Israel’s borders at a time when Israeli-Turkish relations have been poisoned by the Gaza war.
The worst-case scenario for Syrians is that their country will follow the example of the two Arab dictatorships that devolved into violent chaos after the fall of their regimes.
Colonel Gaddafi of Libya and Saddam Hussein of Iraq were removed without a ready-made replacement waiting for their time. Reckless foreign intervention contributed in many ways to the creation of the two disasters.
The vacuum left by the dictators was filled by waves of looting, revenge, power grabs and civil war.
Syrians have not been in control of their own destiny for generations. The persons were robbed by the two presidents of Assad and their followers. The country lost it after the war, leaving it so weakened that larger foreign powers used it to strengthen and maintain their own power.
Syrians still cannot manage their own lives. They may have a chance to create a new and better country if they do.
