Frederik Van Lockeren, a former Belgian navy captain and analyst, told BBC Verify that the Russian ships now appear to be on standby while Moscow considers its next move.
“At the moment they’re effectively in limbo because they don’t quite know what’s going to happen,” Mr Van Lockeren said.
“Obviously, as they are lingering there, it seems that Russia is not yet willing to withdraw all of its naval ships from the area, which may be an indication that they are negotiating with regional partners to see where they can redeploy them. vessels”.
Analysts believe that if Russia is forced to close the naval facility in Tartus, it may move its presence to Tobruk in Libya. The region is under the control of Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar, who is backed by the Kremlin, and is already home to some Russian air bases.
But leaving Tartus would be very expensive, and Mr. Van Lokeren noted that the move would also bring Russian ships closer to NATO bases, making it easier to track them. At the moment, he said, there is no indication that Russia is moving the necessary naval assets to remove the equipment from Tartus.
Meanwhile, since 2015, the Khmeimim airbase has become a key part of Russia’s operations in the Middle East and Africa. It has been used to launch devastating airstrikes on cities across Syria in support of the Assad regime, as well as fly military contractors into Africa.
Satellite images seen by BBC Verify showed at least two large jets, identified by Janes as Il-76 transport planes, still on the tarmac at the base on 10 December. Helicopters on the base could also be seen in the pictures.
Janes also notes that the air defense systems deployed in place remain visible in the northwest corner of the image.
