BBC Verify has been tracking one large Russian An-124 since Tuesday on aircraft tracking website Flightradar24. Its publicly available tracker showed it was flying over Russian airspace in the direction of Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the coast of Syria, west of Khmeimim Air Base, probably because its public tracker was disabled. Then six hours later it can be seen returning to the north.
David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, said he was fast the collapse of the Assad government meant that it was unlikely that Russia had a plan to evacuate resources.
He described the activity at Khmeimim Air Base as “unusual,” suggesting that Russia is keeping some resources at the base and preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria.
Typhoon Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed that the images showed “the early stages of Russia’s withdrawal from Syria, with clear signs of air evacuation.”
“The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian ships in Tartus and the organized advance stage of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion,” Mr. Ozberk said.
Last week, BBC Verify reported how Russian warships have left the port in Tartusand analysts believe that at the moment they are in international waters.
Those ships have not returned, but more than 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in recent days, satellite images show.
