The timing of the unprecedented prisoner exchange between Russia and the West on August 1 remains a difficult question.
Largest Russia-West prisoner swap since Cold War, 24 freed. Photo by Omar Zaghloul/Anadolu via Getty Images
The final decision was most likely made in the Kremlin. The fact that Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed the freed Russian spies with an official honor guard on the red carpet leaves few in doubt (RBCAugust 1).
Connection to US politics
Most of the Russian commentary has implicit ties to the US election campaign and highlighted presidential candidate Donald Trump’s objections to the deal (IzvestiaAugust 3). Managing relations with Washington has always been a top priority in Moscow’s foreign policy, and Putin has likely sought to make his mark in what has been a wild and unpredictable month in US politics. The immediate resonance was strong, but it would almost certainly be overshadowed by other breaking news, particularly from the Middle East, within days. However, the prisoner exchange has re-emphasized Putin’s concept of peace talks to end his “long war”, although the Kremlin’s willingness to negotiate on Kiev’s terms remains lacking.
Ukrainian peace initiatives
The issue of the stock market’s timing is related to the hypothetical but hotly debated format of talks to end the protracted war in Ukraine. Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s longtime press secretary, argued that such talks are “a completely different matter” and could indicate that such a relationship actually exists (InterfaxAugust 2). Some “military-patriotic” experts, who support the continuation of the war until a decisive victory, express their concern about secret preparations for a “treacherous” ceasefire (TopWar.ruAugust 1). More thoughtful experts argue that Putin’s unrelenting ambitions to annex more territory and subjugate Ukraine leave no room for compromise. Thus, his “flexibility” in organizing the exchange of prisoners is simply a tactical move that hides preparations for intensifying military operations (Carnegie PolicyAugust 1).
Russia-Ukraine exchange
The resumption of the prisoner exchange is a twin sign of what some may see as Moscow’s focus on the humanitarian element of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “peace formula.” Since May, about a hundred soldiers from all sides have been returned home (Forbes.ruJuly 17). Letters of hundreds of prisoners of war who are still in captivity, as well as the bodies of fallen soldiers are also regularly exchanged (Knowledge; RBCAugust 2). The United Arab Emirates acts as the main conduit for these arrangements. Turkey, in turn, played an important role in facilitating the recent prisoner exchange at Ankara airport. Both states express their readiness to provide mediation services for peace talks (Interfax-UkraineAugust 2). Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan bills himself as a peacemaker, but his personal chemistry with Putin has been strained by trade disputes between Ankara and Moscow and the August 2 approval of a free trade deal with Ukraine.SvobodaJuly 31; Forbes.uaAugust 2).
The situation at the front
This diplomatic maneuver is completely separate from the high-tension trench warfare at the front. Russia continues to push in several tactical directions, focusing in particular on Pokrovsk, northwest of the previously captured Avdiivka (see EDMJuly 24; MedusaAugust 3). The Russian command continues to make the most of its willingness to take heavy losses for every square kilometer, while the Ukrainians try to avoid unnecessary losses (Republic.ruJuly 31). Filling the destroyed “big battalions” is an increasingly difficult task, and therefore the Russian authorities are forced to increase the rewards for signing military contracts many times higher than the average annual salary (see EDMJuly 29, BFM.ruJuly 31). The value of each new soldier to the society increased in turn. When new units arrive at the front, the Russian command treats them as completely expendable material (The Moscow TimesJuly 29).
The Russian High Command is most concerned about the change in the balance of military capabilities with the arrival of the first squadron of F-16 fighters in Ukraine (Novaya newspaperAugust 1). For several weeks, the Russian Air Force has been stockpiling Kh-101 long-range cruise missiles for a concentrated strike against air bases in western Ukraine. Air bases close to the front are targeted by shorter-range Iskander ballistic missiles (Nezavisimaya newspaper; “Rossiiskaya Gazeta”August 1). The initial mission of the F-16 squadron is expected to be to intercept Russian missiles with MIM-104 Patriot surface-to-air batteries. The deployment of several more squadrons later this year will enable missions targeting Russian military bases in occupied Crimea and deeper into Russian territory (IzvestiaAugust 2).
Russian economy
In a long war, the pattern of combat operations will remain fluid. The outcome of a war is inevitably determined by the amount of resources each side can mobilize to sustain the war (SvobodaJuly 31). Western support for Ukraine has continued at levels the Russian leadership never expected, and Russia’s own economy is struggling under the pressure of wartime demands (see EDM, April 3, June 26; The Moscow TimesAugust 1). Elvira Nabiullina, governor of the Central Bank of Russia, stated that the main reason for raising the interest rate from 16 percent to 18 percent last week was the unprecedented overheating of the economy.RBCJuly 26).
Nabiullina is one of the few officials who can give Putin a realistic picture of the current situation. However, it is not clear whether he has listened to, or rather trusted, what he perceives as growing “Ukraine fatigue” in the Western coalition.KommersantAugust 2). As Ukraine’s opportunities to regain strategic initiative increase, the Kremlin leader’s window to enter negotiations from a position of strength narrows. He may once again overestimate the magnitude of the perceived advantage, and translating this into political gains will likely require meaningful compromises. Even some of Russia’s closest partners, including China, see no sign yet in the Kremlin that Putin is willing to curb his imperial ambitions (Carnegie PolicyAugust 3).
Compromises on all sides
The exchange of prisoners necessarily involved compromises on all sides. However, interpreting this move as indicative of Putin coming to terms with the reality of his disastrous war requires some political wishful thinking. His intention to instigate a “hybrid war” against the West, pointing to various operatives and “sleeper agents”, is more likely because the Western and Russian hostages for future exchanges are so high that the risk of failure is low (see EDMApril 23).
Zelenskiy can count on Russia’s new violations of international norms of behavior to boost the appeal of his proposal for a new peace summit, but realistic prospects for peace will still require hard collective work to overcome Putin’s aggression.
