President Vladimir V. Putin, who celebrated his seizure of Crimea in 2014, later hailed Russia’s return there as a symbol of revanchist ambitions, calling the peninsula an “unsinkable aircraft carrier.”
Now the Ukrainian military is trying to turn Crimea from a fortress occupied by Russians into a nightmare for the Kremlin to rule.
All this has disrupted life in Crimea to the greatest extent since Russia’s illegal annexation of the peninsula in 2014. It also caused some Russian forces on the southern front to go on the defensive, Ukrainian military analyst Kostiantin Mashovets said.
Russia bombed the Ukrainian capital of Kiev overnight Tuesday, killing at least 30 people in a deadly show of force that followed weeks of Ukrainian attacks, according to Ukrainian emergency services.
Moscow has spent years consolidating Crimea, tripling its troops, deploying advanced air defenses and coastal batteries, and building land-based missile launch systems. Fighters and bombers filled airfields, new ships joined the Black Sea fleet, and the $3.7 billion Kerch Strait bridge gave Russia direct access to Crimea.
None of this can change geography.
Initially, Crimea leaves it and goes to the sea Vulnerable to Ukrainian naval drones. In the early years of the war, Ukraine targeted Russia’s naval headquarters in Sevastopol, withdrew warships from Crimean ports and turned the peninsula’s waters into hunting grounds.
His attempts to strike Crimea were limited by Ukraine’s weapons at the time. Now, Ukrainian officials say their ever-growing arsenal could potentially cause more pain to bring Moscow back to the negotiating table.
“There is no hiding place in Crimea,” said Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges, a retired US Army Europe general. “The Ukrainians have the ability to hit anywhere that has an air defense weapon or a logistics center, an airfield or a headquarters.”
Air Defense of Russia
Ukraine’s current campaign against Crimea initially targeted Russia’s air defense network.
In June alone, Ukraine claimed to have targeted 31 air defense systems and radars, the most common military targets for drone strikes.
According to Ukraine, the biggest success of these strikes was the destruction of the $100 million Neva-B radar system, which can track targets up to 370 miles away. The video of the drone released by the Ukrainian military showed that the attack took place on June 25. The New York Times could not independently verify whether it was damaged, but military analysts said it was not an operation.
The attacks exposed significant weaknesses in Russia’s defenses, which were originally built for conventional missiles and aircraft rather than a fleet of drones.
Roads and Bridges
With air defenses weakened, Ukraine then went after supply lines.
After striking ships and suspending ferry operations, Russia now depends only on narrow land and bridge corridors. Ukrainian forces are trying to stop them.
The attacks on the bridges have created a cat-and-mouse dynamic, with Russia scrambling to repair the damage and Ukraine striking back.
Ukraine damaged one such bridge, the Chonhar Bridge, which connects Crimea with the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, on June 7. Russia quickly built a temporary pontoon bridge; days later, Ukrainian drones attacked the temporary bridge.
Over the past two weeks, Russia has built a passageway next to the damaged bridge that could make it more difficult for drones. Construction machinery can be seen working on the road in images taken by satellite imaging company Vantor.
In addition to bridges and railways, Ukrainian drones have targeted trucks, fuel tankers and trains throughout the month. The burning hulls of large fuel trucks and derailed railcars were filmed and photographed by civilians and Ukrainian military drones, highlighting the supply chain disruption.
In June, Ukrainian military units released numerous videos showing their strikes in Crimea. These clips, featuring first-person views of drones striking military and logistical facilities, have become a mainstay of wartime propaganda efforts to showcase Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield against Russia. The Times collected these videos, confirmed their locations and cross-referenced the locations with satellite images. “The Times” could not verify the full extent of the damage to the targets claimed by Ukraine.
Katerina Stepanenko, an analyst at the Institute for the Study of War, said Russian forces are trying to patrol critical southern routes with more drones and interceptor units to counter Ukrainian drone strikes.
“But they need more mobile air defense systems to mitigate the impact of Ukrainian strikes,” he said.
Ukrainian commanders are waiting for Russian troops to adapt, but they have said they will change their tactics.
“Adaptation may take days, weeks or months, but we consistently find new ways to strike in any direction, at any depth, with the assets we have,” said Artem Bielienkov, chief of staff of Ukraine’s 412th Unmanned Systems Brigade.
Knocking Out the Network
Strikes at fuel facilities and the power grid caused widespread blackouts in Crimea and local authorities emergency situation. Gas stations have run out of fuel and thousands of people have left the peninsula since Ukraine’s latest holiday began.
During June, The Times confirmed that Ukraine had struck oil and gas storage facilities, compressor stations, and power plants.
One of the Ukrainian strikes targeted an oil terminal in the port city of Kerch, sending plumes of smoke visible for miles.
On the same day, Ukraine hit an oil storage facility in the Kavkaz port on the other side of the Kerch Strait, striking Russia’s ability to transport oil between Crimea and Russia.
Another Ukrainian drone video, taken on June 19, shows a strike on a gas depot near Dozorne.
While the attacks have put some Russian forces on the defensive, military analyst Mr. Mashovets warned that it could take weeks or months to reduce Russia’s combat capability to the point of forcing it to withdraw from its positions in southern Ukraine.
“This blockade must be strengthened to achieve the ultimate goal,” he said. “This situation must be maintained for a long time.”
Nevertheless, Crimea’s faltering grid has “exposed the peninsula’s systemic vulnerability,” says Hennadii Riabtsev, a Ukrainian energy analyst. “The occupiers’ efforts to repair damage to key facilities such as Tavriya and Balaklava thermal power plants, large substations and fuel terminals face complex technical and logistical challenges,” he said.
Mr Riabtsev threatened to turn the peninsula into a “giant logistical mousetrap”, saying Ukraine’s attacks had a compounding effect.
