“History is not yet written,” warns Marie Forestier, senior adviser on Syria at the European Institute of Peace. She and other informed observers who happened to attend the annual forum in Doha note that another insurgent group, recently named the Southern Operations Room, has invaded the capital and is working with people living in the city. The force is dominated by fighters from the former Free Syrian Army (FSA), which worked closely with Western powers at the start of the 2011 Syrian uprising.
“The game begins now,” is how Ms. Forestier describes the start of this important new chapter, marked by an explosion of celebration in the streets but also critical questions about what comes next.
As an Islamist Hayat Tahrir al-Shams (HTS) has advanced with surprising speed in the face of little resistance, sparking a surge of rebel forces in other regions of Syria, as well as a surge of local armed groups seeking to play a role in their own areas.
“The fight against the Assad regime was the glue that held this de facto coalition together,” says Thomas Juneau, a Middle East expert at the University of Ottawa’s Graduate School of Public and International Affairs, who is also based in Doha.
“Now that Assad has fled, maintaining unity among the factions that overthrew him will be a problem,” he says.
The groups include an umbrella alliance of Turkish militias known as the Syrian National Army, which, like HTS, has dominated northwestern Syria. In the northeast, mainly Kurdish groups of the Syrian Defense Forces (SDF) have also gained ground and will be determined to hold on to their gains.
But an ambitious senior HTS leader grabbed the spotlight. His rhetoric and record are now under scrutiny by Syrians, as well as in neighboring capitals and far beyond. The commander, whose militia first emerged as an al-Qaeda affiliate, broke ranks with the jihadist group in 2016 and has been trying to polish his image ever since. Over the years he has sent conciliatory messages abroad; now he is assuring Syria’s many minorities that they have nothing to worry about.
