If China does take a more central role, it will represent a tectonic shift in the COP process. Historically, Western countries – especially the US and the EU – have provided the impetus by supporting smaller climate-vulnerable countries. The difference in how the negotiations proceed will be noted.
Jonathan Pershing, environmental program director at the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, has been to every cop-out and understands better than anyone the behind-the-scenes bartering, bullying and fraud that make or break deals at summits. He says that China will not rule from the front like the US and Europe.
“They are more cautious players. Perhaps they are leading with Chinese specifications, which they can say for themselves.”
(This echoes how Deng Xiaoping, president in the early 1980s, described his economic reforms that catapulted the country to double-digit economic growth: “socialism with Chinese characteristics.”)
Pershing suggests that China is likely to help move the COP process forward by quietly intervening to unblock disputes. Much of that effort will be done behind closed doors, he believes, but will likely include urging developing and developed countries to increase their ambitions – and the flow of cash.
However, China may not be entirely helpful in solving some of the problems that slow down the process, such as when countries use the COP as a stage to advance their own interests.
One of the biggest blockers in Baku is said to be Saudi Arabia, which leads a group of fossil fuel-producing countries that want to slow the transition to renewable energy. As a major consumer of fossil fuels, China has often supported them in the past, for example by resisting Britain’s attempts to get agreement to phase out coal at COP26 in Glasgow.
In the end, however, according to some informed observers, there is reason for hope. Camilla Bourne, who was part of Britain’s negotiating team and helped run COP26 in Glasgow, believes future negotiations will be defined by the new energy economy, not the politics of meetings.
“It’s no longer just an idea of how to fight climate change,” she says. “It’s about investment, it’s about money – it’s people’s work, it’s new technologies. Conversations are different.”
After all, this is the biggest energy revolution since the Industrial Revolution. And regardless of which superpower takes the lead, or if the US is out of the game for four years, hardly anyone wants to miss out on such a huge market.
