Ukraine does not allow publication of data on its military losses, so there are no official estimates for the past few months.
The Ministry of Defense of Russia states that more than 38,000 Ukrainian soldiers died (killed and wounded) in Kursk alone – this figure cannot be verified.
Yuriy Butusov, a well-connected but controversial Ukrainian war correspondent, says that since February 2022, 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have died and another 35,000 are missing.
Earlier this week, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied US media reports that around 80,000 Ukrainian soldiers had died, saying it was “much less”.
He did not offer his figure.
But combined, the Russian and Ukrainian casualty figures show the terrible intensity of the fighting going on in Kursk and in the eastern regions of Ukraine.
Western officials see no sign of that changing.
“Russian forces will likely continue to try to stretch Ukrainian forces, using mass to overcome defensive positions and gain tactical advantages,” one of them said.
The pace of Russia’s advance has picked up in recent weeks (though still nowhere near the speed of its rapid advances in the first months of the war), driven only by a significant change in the ratio of artillery fire between the two sides.
Where once Russia could fire 13 missiles for every missile fired by Ukraine, the ratio is now roughly 1.5 to 1.
This dramatic turnaround is partly explained by the increase in domestic production, as well as Ukraine’s successful attacks on warehouses with Russian and North Korean ammunition.
But artillery, although important, no longer plays such a decisive role.
“The bad news is that Russian planning bombs have increased significantly,” said one Western official, “with devastating effects on the front lines.”
Russia’s use of cruise bombs launched from jets that fly well in Russian-controlled airspace has increased 10-fold over the past year, the official said.
Hiding bombs and drones have transformed the conflict as each side seeks to innovate.
“We’re at a point where drone warfare has made the infantry toothless, if not obsolete,” Sergei, a front-line soldier, told me via WhatsApp.
As for personnel, both Ukraine and Russia continue to experience difficulties, but for different reasons.
Ukraine did not want to lower the conscription age below 25, depriving all 18-24-year-olds, except those who volunteer.
Meanwhile, Russia is still able to cover its losses, although President Vladimir Putin’s reluctance to launch a new round of mobilization points to a number of internal considerations.
Soaring inflation, overcrowded hospitals and problems compensating bereaved families are all factors.
In some regions of Russia, bonuses for volunteers who want to sign up for the war in Ukraine have risen to three million rubles (about £23,500; $30,000).
“I am not saying that the Russian economy is on the verge of collapse,” the official said. “I’m just saying the pressure continues to build there.”
