That argument aside, there are certainly some diplomatic opportunities for Mr. Trump to seize, although history and dire recent warnings suggest that if he doesn’t get what he wants, he can mollify his enemies and allies with threats of military action. (see Iran, Greenland, Panama.)
Here’s a scorecard to keep handy for the first few months.
In the fog of war, a potential Ukraine deal
There is little evidence that Mr. Putin is eager for a deal that would extricate Russia from a war that has already killed nearly 200,000 people and injured more than half a million. But the assumption is that he is looking out of the way. Since his televised debate with Vice President Kamala Harris, that’s exactly what Mr. Trump has been promising — a deal that will be done “within 24 hours,” or even before he’s sworn in.
Now, not surprisingly, it seems a little more complicated. His special envoy for Ukraine, retired Gen. Keith Kellogg, 80, who served on Mr. Trump’s first National Security Council, recently told Fox that “let’s make it 100 days to make sure the solution is robust and durable.” , and let this war end so we can stop the carnage.” Mr. Trump said he would meet Mr. Putin “soon,” a significant timing, especially since Mr. Biden has not spoken to the Russian leader in nearly three years.
What might a contract look like? First, most Biden and Trump officials acknowledge, at least privately, that Russia is likely to keep its forces in the roughly 20 percent of Ukraine it currently occupies — as part of a stalled but unfinished ceasefire deal. The Korean War in 1953. The most difficult part of any agreement is the security agreement. Who can guarantee that Mr. Putin will not use the ceasefire to rearm, recruit and train new forces, learn from the mistakes of the past three years, and invade again?
Jake Sullivan, Mr. Biden’s national security adviser, claims that Mr. Biden’s team has spent the past year “implementing the architecture” to ensure that security. However, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy suspects that everything is going as planned. Noting that no one paid much attention to Ukraine’s 1994 security pact with the United States, Britain and Russia, he says only NATO membership would keep Mr. Putin from attacking again.
