Democrats took a hit in this month’s election. The 2025 off-year gubernatorial elections in New Jersey and Virginia offer their first chances to get off the carpet.
Both states have turned reliably blue in federal races, but President-elect Donald Trump narrowed his margins in each state, and Democrats can take nothing for granted as they face an electoral reckoning after his national mark. New Jerseyans have not given one party more than eight consecutive years in the governor’s mansion in more than five decades, and Republican Glenn Youngkin entered Richmond three years ago.
That’s why Phil Murphy, a Democrat, is running for office in New Jersey and those who can’t run for two consecutive terms in Virginia are key barometers of Democrats’ ability to break out of the political wilderness. Before the 2026 midterm elections.
New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy speaks on the Hudson River Tunnel project at West Side Yard on January 31, 2023 in New York. Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin speaks on the first day of the 2024 Republican National Convention at the Fiserv Forum in Milwaukee, July 15, 2024.
Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
“I think these two are going to be competitive races. Democrats know they haven’t delivered anything right now,” said Jared Leopold, a former staffer at the Virginia-based Democratic Governors Association. “Governor’s races have always been a way back for a party out of power, and 2025 is no different. So this is going to be a huge opportunity for the Democratic Party.”
Both races are in their early stages, with candidates still throwing their hats into the ring.
New Jersey Reps. Josh Gottheimer and Mikie Sherrill, Newark Mayor Ras Baraka, Jersey City Mayor Steven Fulop, former state Senate President Stephen Sweeney and New Jersey Education Association President Sean Spiller are among the Democrats running to replace Murphy. Rep. Abigail Spanberger is the top Democrat running in Virginia and is considered a powerhouse in the state.
Republicans are also considering their own candidates. Former GOP gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli, who managed to unseat Murphy by about 3 points in 2021, will run again in New Jersey, as will other candidates more aligned with Trump’s brand and more antagonistic. And Virginia Governor Winsome Earle-Sears is running for the governor’s mansion with Youngkin’s endorsement.
But Democrats are the ones on the outside looking in these days, having lost the White House and the Senate this month, and looking to bounce back.
Vice President Kamala Harris’s loss to Trump has sparked accusations among Democrats that the party has lost touch with working-class voters and instead bolstered an elitist, out-of-touch brand that was so unpopular that voters opted for the twice-challenged. The former president was convicted of 34 crimes in New York.
Warning signs appeared this month particularly in New Jersey and Virginia. Trump was stunned when he became the first Republican candidate in 30 years to win New Jersey’s racially diverse Passaic County. And it thrived in northern Virginia, the suburban engine of the Democrats’ statewide advantage.
Many top Democrats in New Jersey and Virginia have sought to distance themselves from the party’s left wing and prioritize affordability over social issues, a potentially effective strategy after voters prioritized economic issues and Trump covered the airwaves with ads attacking Harris. transgender issues
Now, they just need to convince voters that they’re not like the national Democratic bogeymen they’ve heard so much about.
“I think they’re going to talk in the conversation. The question is, how can they convince voters that they’re walking the walk, and how can they convince voters that this is the focus of their campaign?” said Micah Rasmussen, a Democrat who served as press secretary to former New Jersey Gov. Jim McGreevey.
“If you can convince the voters that you got the message and not so much that you need to focus on what you want to focus on, but that you want to focus on what you want the voters to focus on, that’s what’s going to be needed.” “, he added. “Certainly, I think, at this point, the candidates have gotten the message.”
Democrats in both states have outpaced their national counterparts.
Murphy’s narrower-than-expected win over Ciattarelli in 2021 worried Democrats hoping to coast in New Jersey, but they were overruled by voter complaints about affordability in the high-tax state. And Youngkin’s victory in a state President Joe Biden won by 10 points a year earlier also rattled Democrats.
Phil Murphy, Governor of New Jersey, in an interview in New York on November 22, 2024.
Jeenah Moon/Bloomberg via Getty Images
In retrospect, both results may have foreshadowed the post-COVID-19 economic frustrations that have sunk Democrats this year.
Now, the candidates are putting the economy first. “Let’s make life more affordable for hardworking New Jerseyans, from health care to groceries to child care,” Sherrill said in her announcement video. Spanberger touts efforts aimed at “lowering prescription drug prices” and “lowering costs and mitigating inflation.”
Rep. Abigail Spanberger leaves the Capitol after the final vote of the week, Nov. 15, 2024.
Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call via Getty Images
Republicans, for their part, are feeling the oats.
While Trump won every swing state by narrow margins, he swept, making significant gains in Democratic-leaning demographic groups and blue states, including New Jersey and Virginia. And almost nothing is as unifying as winning.
“There’s certainly an opportunity, and being united, that’s the first step,” said Virginia-based GOP strategist Zack Roday. “If your party sweeps the House, the Senate, and the White House, you want to try to hold your ground and compete, and I think we can really compete to win at the top. The Democrats have the advantage, but there’s a lot going on. A coalition that could come together in two states is really attractive where the GOP is.” for the place.”
It’s not all doom and gloom for Democrats, however.
Democrats did well in the 2017 off-year elections after Trump’s first victory and in the 2018 midterms, and New Jerseyans have been particularly reluctant to raise Republicans after a Republican wins the White House. And while Trump was able to juice the base and cut into his opponent’s lead, he still came up short in two states where Democrats hold voter registration edges.
“I don’t think anybody is panicking about where the election is right now. There’s certainly work to be done, but there’s no panic,” said a senior Democratic strategist in New Jersey.
Trump could also capitalize on losses this month to make a Democratic push. His policy proposals, including a 2017 travel ban from several Muslim-majority countries, angered the Democratic base, leading to Democratic victories in 2017 and 2018.
“It really started when Trump started doing very controversial and unpopular things, like the Muslim ban, and then you saw governors and people coming together to fight him. My suspicion is that the same trend will happen here, where Trump’s reality policies will galvanize Democrats.” , said Leopold.
Still, he added, for a party still reeling from its shortcomings this month, it’s not considered a safe race, and Democrats will have their work cut out for them despite friendly territory.
As Leopold stated, “2025 is a big step in the return of the Democrats. We can heal the wounds for the whole of 2024, but come 2025, we have to focus.”
