TikTok says it has 170 million users in the US who spent an average of 51 minutes a day on the app in 2024.
Ban TikTok or make it less user-friendly, and that creates a huge opportunity for big tech rivals, says Jasmine Enberg, an analyst at Insider Intelligence.
“Instagram Reels, owned by Meta, and YouTube Shorts, owned by Google, are the most natural fit for mobile users, creators and advertisers,” she says.
Facebook could also benefit, although Ms. Enberg says that, like all Meta platforms, controversial policy changes announced by CEO Mark Zuckerberg could potentially reduce its appeal.
Users attract advertisers – so a ban could be a big financial boost for these platforms.
“The CMOs we spoke to confirmed that they will redirect their media to Meta and Google if they can no longer advertise on TikTok – the same thing we saw in India when they banned TikTok in 2020 year,” said Forrester principal analyst Kelsey Chickering.
Lemon8, which is also owned by ByteDance, would be an obvious place for people to go after the ban, but the law says it also applies to other apps owned or operated by the firm. This means that Lemon8 will likely face being made unavailable in the US as well.
Other potential winners include Twitch, which has made a name for itself by hosting live streams, a popular feature on TikTok. Twitch is well known especially to gamers, although it continues to grow along with other content.
Other platforms owned by China such as Xiaohongshu – known as RedNote among US users – has seen rapid growth in the US and UK.
However, some believe that no existing app can truly replace TikTok, particularly its TikTok Shop feature, which allows users to purchase products directly from videos and brings in a lot of money for American creators.
Craig Atkinson, CEO of digital marketing agency Code3, said there was no direct competitor that people could easily switch to, noting that his agency signed new contracts with clients to create TikTok Shop campaigns back in December.
