This year will be remembered for many pioneering events first private landing on the moon (see “Space up for sale in 2024 as private mission led by Elon Musk takes off”) to the first pig kidney transplants into living humans. Unfortunately, 2024 is bleaker for the first time: although the numbers won’t be officially confirmed until next month, it’s extremely likely that this year will be the first to exceed the totemic climate target of 1.5°C of global warming (see “Climate chaos accelerated in 2024, when we first reached 1.5°C”).
Let’s be clear about what exactly that means. It is not a violation of the world’s most important climate treaty, the 2015 Paris Agreement, in which nations pledged to limit long-term temperature rise to below 1.5°C, which they believe is a 20-year average. . It’s also not a sign that the world is doomed and that we should give up all hope of tackling climate change, because every fraction of a degree we keep temperatures down will still improve the lives of billions of people if we don’t. But it is undoubtedly a global failure that warming has reached this level, even if only for a year (so far).
Exceeding 1.5°C also comes as the world enters a new and uncertain phase of climate change. As we’ve reported throughout the year, extreme warming in 2024 (matched only by 2023) has scientists scrambling to understand what’s going on, with growing concern. key changes ocean currents Unexplained Antarctic levels loss of sea ice.
Heading into a new year with such uncertainty, it’s hard not to feel pessimistic, but it might not be all bad. Next year will mark 10 years since the Paris Agreement came into force, and even then, it was clear that the 1.5°C target was being pushed to the limit of what was achievable. As our year-end leader wrote at the time: “As a call to action, it’s quixotic: the desire to limit global warming to 1.5°C seems almost entirely unattainable.” In fact, remaking the modern world to stop greenhouse gas emissions and reach net zero is the most ambitious goal humanity has set for itself.
Pessimism does not make for good photo shoots. “And if we fail?” he asks. and ‘if we are wrong?’
This ambition is essential given the scale of the challenge we face, but it is not enough. It’s easy to set ambitious and optimistic goals like the Paris Agreement, where politicians line up in photos, smile and shake hands. It feels warm and fuzzy.
But to achieve such goals, pessimism must prevail. Pessimism does not make for good photo shoots. “And if we fail?” he asks. and “what if we’re wrong?” – If they want to work on it, it involves facing the deep uncertainties of our green transition, technological, social or economic. To do otherwise is a recipe for failure.
Lessons can be learned from the success of 2024. Space engineers and surgeons default to the assumption of error, given the complexity of landing on the moon or performing complicated operations. To mitigate this, they use a simple tool: a simple checklist. By identifying points of failure and taking steps to avoid them, the chances of success are much higher.
It wouldn’t make much sense to have a “climate checklist” when we’re talking about an ongoing global process rather than a single operation or space mission, but the underlying ethos still applies. A major failure point is the UN’s annual climate talks. in the period 29th COP summitthis year in Azerbaijan, hosts hailed fossil fuels as a “gift from God”.
COP30, which will be held next November in Belém (Brazil), offers an opportunity to reset the position. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is already making noise in that direction, promising a “COP turnaround,” but can he deliver? Perhaps the strongest message he could send would be to stand on stage and publicly acknowledge the failure of the COP process so far, alongside smiling world leaders with a clear plan to do better. Don’t bet Santa will grant that wish, though.
Some contrition and pessimism may also contribute to another problem quietly bubbling in 2024: the threat of a bird flu pandemic (see “Bird flu suddenly broke out in 2024, infecting dozens of people”). The H5N1 virus has spread throughout US dairy herds with minimal surveillance and mitigation efforts by US health officials. As a result, the number of human infections there has also increased, reaching over 50 at the time of going to press.
The virus is not yet well adapted to humans and, so far, no human-to-human transmission has been known, but each new infection. it increases the possibilities that a random mutation will change that. Optimistically rolling the dice and hoping for double sixes does not make for good health policy. In an ideal world, the US would plan for a possible pandemic that, fingers crossed, never happens. with incoming presidentWith Donald Trump, vaccine skeptic Robert F. Kennedy Jr leaving as secretary of health and human services, we don’t live in an ideal world, which means other countries should make their own plans. This is the only rational response to uncertainty.
Clearly, all this pessimism is not particularly in the holiday spirit. Rest assured, however, during this double number The New Scientist There is a world of sweet holidays, from the science of believing in Santa (see “Believing in Santa Claus doesn’t make kids behave better at Christmas”) in search of the world’s largest snowflake (see “How Nature Defeated the Plan to Make the World’s Biggest Snowflake”).
As for next year, raise a glass, both half-empty and half-full, to researchers and companies developing new ways to combat climate change, whether it’s absorbing carbon dioxide from the air or genetically engineering our food to be greener (of them). you can read more in our 2025 preview in the next issue), and they hope that the uncertainty created by this year’s climate news can and will be a catalyst for change.
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