Coal plants contribute to global warming
Walaiporn Sangkeaw
Current policies of governments around the world will result in warming of 1.9 to 3.7°C by 2100, possibly more in the 22nd century.
“We continue to emit CO2 every year after 2100, leading to ever-higher global temperatures,” says Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist at Stripe, a California-based software company that invests in carbon sequestration technology.
Its findings are based on an analysis of a dozen studies published over the past five years looking at the effects of current policies. According to these studies, the world is warming between 2.3 and 3 °C by the year 2100.
However, these numbers do not fully account for uncertainties about the future emissions of greenhouse gases due to human actions, and how the climate system will respond to these emissions. Including these uncertainties gives a wider range of 1.9 to 3.7 °C.
These numbers reflect the no-choice interval of the scenarios – 5th to 95th percentile – which means there is a small chance of warming of 4.4°C this century with current policies.
The good news is that all recent research is consistent with very high emission scenarios today they are unlikely. Of these, a warming of more than 4°C before the year 2100 would be the most likely outcome.
That’s partly because the worst-case scenarios studied by climate scientists weren’t that credible in the first place, Hausfather says, but it also reflects real progress in limiting emissions growth as coal use accelerates.
If climate policies are strengthened and technological advances continue to exceed expectations, future emissions may be even lower than predicted in these studies, but this is not guaranteed, and the rise of technologies such as artificial intelligence it could do the opposite.
“It’s certainly possible to envision a world in which AI accelerates rapidly and drives near-term emissions increases beyond what will happen today,” says Hausfather.
But he doesn’t think AI-related emissions will make much of a difference in the long run. “It’s certainly not inconsistent with rapid emissions reductions, but it’s hard to see a significantly different outcome at the end of the century,” says Hausfather.
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