South Africa-Trump land row may move from aid to trade

It seems South Africa is at crossing in its wax and reduced relations with the US after the contradictory decision of President Donald Trump to reduce financial assistance to the country last week.

Trump said South Africa pursued what he called “unfair and immoral practices” against the White Minority Community community and started the genocide against Israel in the International Court (CU) in December 2023.

His step was directed by shock waves in South Africa, and experts are afraid that he could take advantage of this opportunity to complete preferential access to the US market through his special US-offica trade program, known as Africa’s growth and possibilities (AGO).

Both countries usually had friendships from the end of the White Minority rules in 1994, when the icon against the apartheid and the Nobel Peace Prize winner Nelson Mandela was elected the first black president of South Africa.

Despite the fact that it took another 14 years in the US to remove Mandela from its “terrorist watch list” for their role in the fight against the racist apartheid system, which was introduced by the then ruler of South Africa in 1948.

The last tension broke out a few days after Trump’s inauguration last month when South Africa President Cyril Ramaphos signed bill on expropriationallowing the government to confiscate the land without compensation under certain circumstances.

Trump’s response came last week If it threatened to cut future funding over what he called “scary things, terrible things” made by the country’s leadership.

The US president also accused South Africa, without any reason, of “confiscation of land” and “to do things that may be much worse than that.”

He doubled twice before the rebuttal of the South Africa government and signed the executive order last Friday.

This is up to almost 440 million dollars (353 million pounds) – the amount of assistance, which is reported will not be affectedAdding the nuance that “not all PEPFAR activities will resume”.

South Africa-one of the largest beneficiary PEPFAR, which makes about 17% in the HIV/AIDS program, which receives about 5.5 million people.

In his executive order, Trump also accused South Africa of “shocking disregard for citizens” and took “aggressive positions” against the US and his ally Israel in the CU case.

In addition to freezing assistance, Trump suggested help refugees in the African community, who are the most white descendants of the early Dutch and French settlers to settle in the US.

His position played in the hands of conservative lobby groups, including Afriforum and solidarity that want the government to abolish what he calls “races -based laws” such as positive actions and black economic expansion.

This is suggested by the views of Trump’s close advisor Elon Musk, a billionaire born in South Africa. He questioned on X, why in Ramaphos “Open Racist Property Laws”.

This is not the first time the South African land reform policy has caused Ire Trump.

In 2018 during its first presidency, He accused the South African authorities of “large -scale murder of farmers” And he asked his then Secretary of State to look into the government “to capture the land from white farmers.”

While Trump’s remarks caused a return response at the time, Dr. Oscar van Herden, a political analyst at Johannesburg, said the BBC that “there has never been such a radical action adopted before the executive order.”

With their relations now in an unstable condition – both countries weigh their next step.

On the trade front, Donald Makei, CEO of a trade consulting firm based in Johannesburg, said that while the United States was one of the largest partners of South Africa, it was not his “closest trading partner”.

South Africa exports various minerals to the US, including dam, iron and manganese.

It is also one of the largest AGO exporters, which brings about $ 2.7 billion in profit in 2023, mainly from the sale of vehicles, jewelry and metals.

“For many years, this wax relationship has been and fell. It has never been very strong (because the white minority rules ended in South Africa). But at the same time I believe it has never deteriorated as much as in recent years in the last years Years and I don’t think it’s South Africa’s fault, “Make BBC said.

But he admitted that in recent years, South Africa has done a lot “a lot” to annoy the US.

“These stimuli accumulate under the President of Trump … This is considered an opportunity to put South Africa in their place.”

D -R Van Herden has set changes in the dynamics in part to “global shifts” and “new competitions that come against the United States” from China, India and Brazil.

While the experts made about the benefits of AGO, which came to the inspection at the end of this year, they agreed that the impact could not be as significant as some fear.

Agos was submitted in 2000 And this gives the right to the south of the Sahari African countries that have no obligations to the US for more than 1800 products.

Makei said Makei would be surprised if South Africa continues to benefit from this preferential agreement.

“My instinct, regardless of the reason that Trump is upset by South Africa, would currently be the simplest mechanism to be used to punish South Africa.”

Dr. Van Herden added that even if the agreement is not restored, or South Africa is ultimately excluded, these businesses, which are currently benefiting from it, would suffer short-term losses, but it managed to bounce in a few years.

He said that at this point, President Ramaphos’ government chooses a diplomatic route – although it would seem that the lack of Trump administration in diplomacy dramatically reduces the chances of success.

This probably did not help South Africa’s Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola Brant on Wednesday to move Trump, saying that there was no chance that South Africa was withdrawing the case against Israel to the CU.

“Standing on our principles sometimes has consequences, but we remain firm, which is important for the world and the rule of law,” ” Lamola told Financial Times.

South Africa has accused Israel of committing genocide against Palestinians living in Gaza, Israel’s charges.

Meanwhile, Ramaphos has announced a G20 president that he would send a delegation worldwide to clarify South Africa’s domestic and foreign policy – and Washington will become a key stop.

South Africa has assumed the post of President of the G20, a cohort of countries that are found to discuss global economic and political issues in December last year, considering it as an opportunity to strengthen their international situation.

But in South Africa, US Secretary of State Mark Rubio announced that he would not attend the G20 foreign ministers in Johannesburg.

“My task is to promote America’s national interests, not spending taxpayers and anti-Americanism,” he said.

South Africa is part of the BRICS, and the Alliance of major developing countries, including Brazil, Russia, India and China, trying to challenge the political and economic power of wealthy nations of North America and Western Europe.

Makei believes that for South Africa and other countries it will be difficult to navigate the United States as part of the “most unpredictable politician in the world”, believing that they will have to be increasingly regarded by BRICS as an alternative partner.

But for South Africa, the European Union (EU), one of the largest trading partners, confirmed the country’s support.

Antonio Costa, President of the European Council – which defines the general political direction and priorities of the EU – Posted on X on Monday What he was talking to Ramaphos on the phone to emphasize “EU’s commitment to deepening ties with South Africa.”

In the event that the charm of South Africa has failed, Mr Van Herden believes the government may select a “tough agreement” and use the minerals that it supplies to the United States as “negotiations”.

But he announces the warning: “South Africa will need to think very carefully about how they play this chess game (where) the opening of the Gambit has already been made by President Trump and Elon Musk.”