Russia’s offensive in Donbas has slowed over the past few weeks, and in Kursk Oblast, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order to withdraw Ukrainian forces has not been followed. This impasse, in which both sides suffered heavy losses, could create favorable conditions for the start of peace negotiations. Such negotiations remain a hypothetical proposition, and the Kremlin has indicated that it is fully committed to its maximalist demands for Ukraine’s capitulation (“Rossiiskaya Gazeta”January 10).
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in 2018. Photo: Mikhail Svetlov/Getty Images
This ostentatious harshness contrasted sharply with public opinion, which was clearly in favor of an end to the war.
Even official surveys show that two-thirds of respondents are not satisfied with the results of 2024 (TASSDecember 23). Only a few outlets in the mainstream media dare to discuss the prospects for a peace deal, with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov saying the ceasefire is “a road to nowhere” setting the tone for a non-stop propaganda campaign (RIACDecember 26; Forbes.ruJanuary 8).
Credible buzz can barely disguise the Kremlin’s anticipation of a possible meeting between Putin and soon-to-be-inaugurated US President Donald Trump without conditions (Forbes.ru; “Rossiiskaya Gazeta”January 10). Unable to come to this meeting with the advantage of a successful offensive operation, Putin seems to be hoping to impress his counterpart with determination, which leads to a preemptive rejection of the temporary parameters of the concession put forward by some members of the Trump team (TASSDecember 29).
The working hypothesis in Moscow appears to be that Washington must create compelling incentives for Russia to agree to a ceasefire because Trump’s ability to exert pressure is limited (Svoboda.orgJanuary 10). This confidence is self-deceiving, as Trump has at least four powerful levers to force Putin to shift from ultimatums to reasonable flexibility.
The first is increased restrictions on Russian oil exports, which remain an important source of revenue for Russia’s highly distorted federal budget (InsiderJanuary 2). The Biden administration opened the way for such an escalation by announcing a new package of sanctions on January 10 that will hurt major producers such as Gazprom Neft and Surgutneftegaz.KommersantJanuary 10). An obvious target for additional punishment is the “shadow fleet” of tankers assembled by Moscow to transport its oil, especially those old vessels like the Eventin, which are idle off the coast of Germany, and technical malfunctions in these old vessels pose a serious environmental risk to the Baltic Sea. (RBC.ruJanuary 10). The use of these vessels for attacks on underwater infrastructure is even more alarming, and the case against the Eagle S tanker, which was seized by the Finnish Coast Guard after its anchor severed several cables, could be a legitimate basis for harsh sanctions (InterfaxJanuary 7).
A second lever could be a tougher US demand from North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) member states to increase their defense budgets, following Trump’s proposal to set it at 5 percent of gross domestic product (GDP).KnowledgeJanuary 10). Moscow experts eagerly predict a deepening of the rift in trans-Atlantic relations, citing as evidence the growing dispute over the future of Greenland (RIA NovostiJanuary 10). The importance of greater investment in improving military capabilities and revitalizing the defense industry is increasingly recognized by European politicians, so a push to increase spending levels may strengthen US leadership rather than contribute to divisiveness (Novaya newspaper Europe; RBC.uaJanuary 6). Germany is set to play a key role in setting the new rules, and a new conservative governing coalition formed after February’s federal election could set the course for security cooperation with the United States, according to Russian academic experts. The far-right Alternative for Germany doesn’t seem like a big spoiler (RIA NovostiJanuary 7).
A third pressure point for Trump is expanding military support for Ukraine, as it undermines Putin’s confidence in controlling the strategic initiative. It should at least be at the same level achieved by the end of 2024, when the Biden administration has eased its concerns about escalation (Svoboda.orgJanuary 8). Russian observers believe there has been a deep reduction in US support for Ukraine, but the new team in the White House has plenty of room to maneuver, aiming for a political victory rather than a costly compromise (Nezavisimaya newspaperJanuary 8).
A fourth tool Trump could use is to target Putin personally. In the last year, the Russian leader has made great efforts to raise his international status and appreciates every bit of his recognition as a world statesman (InsiderDecember 30). The warrant issued by the International Criminal Court is a major irritant, and the US administration may take the lead in legitimizing it on par with Venezuela’s corrupt dictator Nicolas Maduro.IzvestiaJanuary 11). Much resentment has built up among Russian elites, including top businessmen and even the government, over the protracted and stalemated war, but it remains repressed (MedusaJanuary 9). For many disaffected bureaucrats and managers, the constant war trap is impossible to escape, and opening up incentives to flee the country can be an effective means of undermining the integrity of the Putin regime (The Moscow TimesJanuary 9). In order to strengthen this pressure, it is necessary to fine tune the sanctions regime to open some channels for the flow of capital from Russia (Re: RussiaJanuary 8).
In the upcoming meeting with Trump, Putin may assume a position of power or try to fake it to get a better deal on a hoped-for operational deal. He thinks he knows his counterpart and hopes to rekindle the special chemistry of meeting equals. The two completely different characters plan to test each other’s true strength at the Helsinki summit in mid-July 2018, unable to reach a useful agreement. The crime of rape has made Putin one of the world’s villains, and he must be dealt with. he cares, but you can’t expect respect. Trump could force Putin to accept a compromise, but he doesn’t have to. As President Ronald Reagan denounced the Soviet autocracy in June 1992, it has the potential to consign the Putin regime to “the ash heap of history.”
