Over the past few weeks, Russian President Vladimir Putin has shown no discernible change in his maximalist stance on how to end the war in Ukraine.
Viktor Orban in Kyiv, Ukraine, July 2, 2024 Photo: Maksim Marusenko/NurPhoto via Getty Images.
Nevertheless, many other governments and organizations continue to come up with ideas and initiatives on how to end this devastating conflict, although not all of them are favorable to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s proposal to hold a second peace summit this November (KommersantJuly 17). Some pleas for an immediate ceasefire, such as a letter from a group of Nobel laureates calling for peace in both Ukraine and Gaza, stem from genuine humanitarian concerns (Novaya newspaperJuly 13). Other maneuvers are less compassionate and more self-serving.
However, Moscow is interested in channeling every proposal towards its obsessive goal of destabilizing the West and undermining the pro-Ukraine coalition.
Hungarian and Russian intrigues
Viktor Orbán, Hungary’s controversial prime minister, has sought to capitalize on the peace quest and has made himself a key conduit for Russian intrigue. Taking advantage of his position as the new President of the EU Council, he visited Kiev, Moscow and Beijing and later presented proposals for an end to the war (Forbes.ruJuly 15). In the newly elected European Parliament, 495 out of 720 members recently condemned this “peace” mission as a breach of standard policy (MedusaJuly 17). Orbán insists that his initiative is on track and further secret steps are being prepared (RBCJuly 18). However, Putin has not signaled that Russia’s demands will ease, but commentators in Moscow are still praising Orbán’s stance (Russia in Global AffairsJuly 17).
Hungary’s divergent position on the war in Ukraine may be favorable to Russia, but the European Union’s consolidated position in support of Ukraine is growing stronger. The re-election of Ursula von der Leyen as President of the European Commission represents a broad commitment to raising the EU’s security profile, which is necessary to prevail in the confrontation with Russia (KommersantJuly 18). His intention to appoint a commissioner for defense cooperation is interpreted in Moscow as a step towards turning the European Union into a military alliance (IzvestiaJuly 18).
The role of Kaja Kallas
The decision of the European Union to prevent Russian aggression is also confirmed by the promotion of Kaja Kallas, the former prime minister of Estonia and a harsh critic of the Putin regime, to the post of High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy (Novaya newspaper EuropeJuly 18).
Kallas’ designation shows that the strong position of “frontline states” such as Estonia and Poland is shared and reinforced by Northern Europe, which was previously dominated by pacifist ideas and movements (The Moscow TimesJuly 17). Last week’s European Political Union Summit held in Great Britain also showed broad support for not making any profit from Russia’s aggression (KommersantJuly 18). Zelenskiy used the opportunity to speak at Blenheim Palace, the ancestral home of Winston Churchill, citing the former British prime minister’s example of leadership in resisting and defeating arrogant tyranny and calling for more help to challenge Ukraine.slowJuly 18). Russian commentators did not respond convincingly to this show of solidarity, instead looking for evidence of Germany’s inability to take the lead in strengthening European unity (Independent newspaperJuly 15).
NATO and US leadership
What confuses experts in Moscow is that Europe’s security dynamics are not caused by the pressure of the United States, but by the internal motives of its own organizations and governments (Rossiiskaya gazetaJuly 16). As the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) summit once again demonstrated, US leadership in peace remains crucial. However, the standard rhetoric of Russian propaganda about US supremacy does not apply to EU decision-making (Re: RussiaJuly 12; see EDM, July 15, 17, 18).
No matter what changes happen in the domestic politics of the United States, a few months before the presidential elections in November, Putin will not get his wish for the surrender of Ukraine (Svoboda.orgJuly 18).
The US favors China
Another certainty is that the next US administration will prioritize managing strategic competition with China. Beijing responded angrily to the claim in the Washington Summit declaration that China was the main “enabler” of Russian aggression and expressed its disapproval of expanding NATO’s presence in the Indo-Pacific region (KnowledgeJuly 12; TopWar.ruJuly 19). In addition to the predictable denials and condemnations, Beijing considers it important to reaffirm its commitment to ending the war in Ukraine, which does not exclude its participation in the second peace summit (RBCJuly 16).
Instead of detailing its old “peace plan,” China offered to sign an agreement pledging the five permanent members of the UN Security Council not to threaten or plan a nuclear first strike, implicitly undercutting Putin’s precipice model.KommersantJuly 18). In addition, it should be noted that China also withdrew from the nuclear arms control talks with the United States in recent weeks (TASSJuly 17). Chinese President Xi Jinping gave Orbán an audience but did not encourage his mediation for peace, perhaps preferring to communicate with the EU leadership on the matter without this dubious interlocutor (IzvestiaJuly 8).
Moscow still hopes that rising tensions between China and the West could sway its key strategic partner into more support for the war (RIA NovostiJuly 20). What makes it difficult for the Kremlin to understand Beijing’s diplomatic maneuvers is the scope of economic problems caused by pressure from Western countries, which determine the political priorities of the Chinese leadership (RIACJuly 19). Russia relies on China for the sustenance of its military-industrial complex, because China is one of the few countries that will trade important parts with Russia due to Western sanctions, meaning that Russia is bringing its economy closer to China’s (see EDM, January 22, April 29May 6, 14).
Promoting a constructive peace process
It is relatively clear to many key external stakeholders that the current stalemate in trench warfare is not conducive to promoting a constructive peace process. Russia is willing to lose a thousand troops a day to control the so-called “strategic initiative”, and Ukraine hopes that its resilience will give it a stronger negotiating position, perhaps by the end of the year (see). EDMJuly 16). In the abstract, the proposal to end the war through peace talks is still popular on both sides, traumatized by this protracted disaster.
This preference has not yet translated into a willingness to compromise, which leaves room for self-serving politicians to proclaim slogans of “peace” without any substance (see EDMJuly 2). Inevitably, they play with their hands tied to the levers of Putin’s war machine. He is fixated on dividing the West and controlling Ukraine, and the difficult road to peace goes from denying that ambition to his eventual defeat.
