Winter evening in Vilnius, Lithuania.
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Lithuanians voted on Sunday in the first round of parliamentary elections, which could see the centre-right ruling coalition replaced by the opposition Social Democrats and smaller centre-left parties.
Despite economic successes, strict COVID-19 measures and the influx of migrants have overshadowed the government of conservative Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė, who took office in 2020.
Despite European Union member Lithuania’s double-digit annual income growth and one of the lowest inflation rates in the 27-nation bloc, many voters seem unimpressed.
“There is a lot of disappointment and discontent among voters,” said Rima Urbonaitė, a political analyst at Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius. “It is associated with many crises and shocks and cannot be offset by economic factors such as a positive change in purchasing power.”
Šimonytė has drawn criticism for strict measures during the pandemic, with many complaining that his government has not done enough to help businesses during the lockdown. Others say that thousands of people did not have adequate access to health services.
Šimonytė has also come under fire for his treatment of migrants arriving from Belarus. Lithuania has its eastern neighbor, as well as Russia, to orchestrate the flow of people, mostly from Africa and the Middle East.
A recent poll by pollster Vilmorus says that the Social Democratic Party led by Vilija Blinkevičiūtė would lead the poll, with twice as many votes as Šimonytė’s Union of the Fatherland. Nemuno Aušra, the newly named party of right-wing politician Remigijus Žemaitaitis, who was indicted earlier this year for making anti-Semitic statements, would be among them.
However, no party would get more than 20% of the vote, forcing anyone hoping to govern to seek alliances.
The Social Democrats have rejected an alliance with the Žemaitaitis party, which means that three or four parties, probably small groups representing the political center, will be needed to form a government coalition.
“I’ve voted for the conservatives all my life, but this year I’m thinking of giving my vote to another good party, not them,” said Darius Mikalauskas, a 51-year-old teacher from Vilnius. “Šimonytė and the entire Homeland Union look battered, worn out and would be better off spending some time on the bench.”
Analysts say a shift to the left would not bring much change to Lithuania’s foreign policy, which also shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad region to the west. But the vote comes as Russia’s war in Ukraine heightens wider fears about Moscow’s ambitions, particularly in the strategically important Baltic region.
“In this country, the course of foreign policy is mainly determined by the president,” said Urbonaite. Earlier this year, President Gitanas Nauseda defeated Šimonytė in the presidential election to take a second five-year term.
In 2020, Šimonytė led his Homeland Union to victory in the parliamentary elections. Later, he formed a coalition with two liberal parties, the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement.
About 2.4 million people have the right to elect 141 members of parliament, or Seimas, for a four-year term in two rounds. On Sunday, 70 members of parliament will be elected on party lists, including those in single-member constituencies that manage to win more than 50% of the vote. The run-off will take place on October 27, when the majority of single-member constituencies will vote to choose between the two main candidates.
