The Democratic candidate is acting as if protecting her slim advantage is more important than energizing her base. We’ve seen this story before — and it didn’t end well.
Since the week of the Democratic National Convention in mid-August, Kamala Harris has been running an exceptionally cautious presidential campaign. Before the DNC, in a month where the Democratic Party was rallying around her candidacy, Harris presented herself as a break from the past, adopting new slogans (“We’re not coming back!”), speaking out far more forcefully than Joe Biden on abortion rights and the unexpected an election in the form of Minnesota Governor Tim Waltz (whose own rhetorical style, including a willingness to call Republicans “weird,” was also remarkably unorthodox).
By the time the DNC took place, Harris had settled down small but persistent lead in the polls. While that’s a big improvement over Joe Biden (who was on track to lose big to Donald Trump), it also backfired, forcing Harris to tone down his campaign. Harris’ campaign appears to have adopted a do-no-harm strategy based on the belief that their best bet is not to upset the apple cart with new promises, but instead to improve their standing among moderate Republicans by highlighting Trump’s volatility.
This new strategy can be seen everywhere elevation of Liz Chaney as a stand-in (Harris recently met with Cheney at the GOP home of Wisconsin) for Tim Waltz’s polite, erratic interaction with J.D. Vance during the vice-presidential debate. Another example of careful campaigning is the fact that Harris has been particularly reluctant to criticize or tear Biden apart in any way, even over his unpopular Middle East policies.
The problem with the “let sleeping dogs lie” strategy is that you have no control over external events. As you know, October in the presidential year is a month of surprises. last week, the dockers’ strike threatened to upend the economy – the danger was averted only when the union agreed to postpone the strike until January. The situation in the Middle East makes it even more likely that things will get out of control. Israel’s offensive on Gaza has already escalated into a larger regional conflict that now includes the still-expanding war in Lebanon as well as a missile exchange with Iran.
Biden himself is aware that the Israeli government of Benjamin Netanyahu is pursuing policies that endanger the Democrats. last wednesday Politics reported“Biden told confidants he doesn’t believe his Israeli counterpart wants a cease-fire deal, arguing Netanyahu is trying to perpetuate the conflict to save his political future and help Trump in the November election.” The risk here lies not only in Netanyahu’s actions, but also in Biden’s ineptitude. While Biden may acknowledge that Netanyahu is supporting the conflict to help Trump, he is reluctant to use his presidential power to rein in Netanyahu in any way. By refraining from distancing himself from Biden, Harris is tying himself to a policy that already is unpopular with Democrats voters and could become the anchor that pulls her down if the United States becomes embroiled in another Middle East war.
Playing it safe also means doing fewer events and less media. on saturday Politics published a large report documenting that dissent against the policy is growing among Democrats. According to Politics:
Democratic operatives, including some of Kamala Harris’s staff, are increasingly concerned about her relatively light campaign schedule, which has seen her hold fewer events than Donald Trump and almost entirely avoid unscheduled communications with voters and the press.
Nearly two dozen Democrats were interviewed by POLITICO described As they fear, Harris is running a race of no harm and risk aversion, which could hamper her as the company enters its final 30-day stretch.
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Harris and Walz were both highly visible before the DNC, but have kept a lower profile since then. How Politics notes, “Waltz, who won the running mate slot in part because of his strength in high-profile interviews, but … has largely stopped giving them after joining a campaign run by a team that seeks to minimize risk.” Over the past month, Harris’ avoidance of the public eye has been more reminiscent of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 defeat than the more vigorous campaigning style that brought Barack Obama to victory in 2008.
It might make sense to play it safe and stick with the Never Trump Republicans if Harris had a healthy lead and the Democratic base was solid and engaged. But, unfortunately, this is far from the case.
Massachusetts state representative Seth Moulton describes the race as “terribly close,” even with a new candidate. He wants Harris to speak much more and in detail about her economic and immigration policies. An operative of the Democratic Party told about it Politics“You have to get to Michigan. You need to live in Pennsylvania (because) the problem is still black voters in Philadelphia, black voters in Detroit.” In a private conversation with donors, representative Alice Slotnik said“I don’t feel the best right now about where we are on Kamala Harris in a place like Michigan.” Slotnick may be trying to squeeze money out of donors by scaring them, but common sense dictates that given the election is so close, her warning should be heeded.
Harris is still not where she needs to be Black voters, Latin Americans, young votersor working class voters. These are the groups that Harris’ campaign should focus on revitalizing. Given this fact, it is foolish to go after the “Never Trump” Republicans by praising Dick Cheney, as Dave Zirin recently stated noted Art Nation. Never Trump. There are very few Republicans – Liz Cheney’s defeat in 2022 could be the key the largest primary loss by an incumbent president this century — and pursuing their agenda risks alienating key Democratic constituencies.
The good news is that there are signs that Harris’ company itself is doing a play-it-safe reboot. Next week, Harris will increase its media appearancesgiving an interview on 60 minutes and The view and with Stephen Colbert and Howard Stern. She will also campaign in Nevada and Arizona. The interviews in the media are only small steps, since, apart from 60 minutesthey will mostly be with very friendly outlets.
Besides a more visible Harris, we also need to see a bolder Harris. She has no reason to be afraid to criticize Biden — especially Biden and his staff began to undermine Harris, suggesting that he might have won if he had stayed in the race. Like CNN reported on Sunday, “Kamala Harris’ top aides approach the final month of the 2024 presidential race, still grappling with how far she can credibly run. Joe Biden as she looks for more ways to weave in breaks with him on the way to the company. CNN also reported that a poll conducted by Democrats shows that voters want Harris to separate from Biden.
Breaking sharply with Biden on several major issues is exactly the bold move Harris needs right now.
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