“As a demographer, I don’t think states should be overly concerned about these issues. They can be resolved through constructive negotiations between the federal and state governments,” says Mr Goli. “I’m worried about something else.”
The main problem, according to demographers, is the rapid aging of India, caused by a decline in the birth rate. While countries like France and Sweden took 120 and 80 years respectively to double their aging population from 7% to 14%, India is expected to reach the milestone in just 28 years, says Mr. Goli.
This accelerated aging is due to India’s unique success in reducing the birth rate. In most countries, rising living standards, education, and urbanization naturally reduce birth rates as child survival improves.
But India’s fertility rate has fallen rapidly despite modest socio-economic progress thanks to aggressive family welfare programs that have favored small families through targeted, incentive and disincentive measures.
Unintended consequences? Take Andhra Pradesh for example. The country’s birth rate is 1.5, on a par with Sweden, but per capita income is 28 times lower, Mr Goli says. with mounting debt, external and limited resources, can such states support higher pensions or social security for a rapidly aging population?
Consider this. According to the latest data from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), more than 40% of elderly Indians (60+) belong to the poorest quintile of well-being – the bottom 20% of the population in terms of the distribution of well-being. India Aging Report, external.
In other words, Mr. Goli says, “India is getting old before it gets rich.”
Fewer children also means higher old-age dependency ratios, leaving fewer caregivers for the growing elderly demographic. Demographers warn that India’s health care, community centers and nursing homes are unprepared for this shift.
