Everyone’s favorite Josh Cohen tells us what he’ll be watching when the polls close tonight.
Last week, Josh Cohen—a regular member to Nationthe author of Art Ettingermentum newsletterand favorite data on the left winked — were guests on Nationelection podcast, Look how they run. You can listen to the full episode here.
Today, we’re sharing an edited excerpt of that conversation Cohen shared Nation editor D. D. Gutenplan on the specific states and districts he’ll be watching when the polls close Tuesday night to get a sense of who will win the presidency.
Which races are you most looking forward to this cycle?
I think the congressional races, especially the Senate races, have been some of the most fascinating and interesting contests that have been overlooked all year. You’ve seen Democrats put up very, very, very strong election results. Republicans are well ahead (behind) Trump in many cases in these races. So there’s a clear group of people who are willing to vote for Trump, but who also aren’t sold on the Republican Party as a whole and plan to vote for Democratic Senate candidates as well.
What places are you going to look to immediately after the polls close as potential signs of how the overall race will go?
I would tell people not to pay much attention to Florida. It attracts a lot of attention from the beginning because polling stations there close very early and he counts the votes very quickly, but this is a very unique condition. In 2020, it was one of the few states that went against Trump. It seemed to be a sign that he was doing well at the national level. It was more a sign that he was doing well in states like Florida — (and there are) hardly any other states in the country like Florida.
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Polls in central Indiana and eastern Kentucky closed at 6 in the evening ET. None of these states are overly competitive. But there is one county in Indiana that may be worth paying attention to very, very early on, called Hamilton County.
It’s a suburb of Indianapolis and historically a very, very strong suburban Republican district. I think almost every election in the last 100 years it has been voted Republican — it’s one of those classic Yankee GOP districts that always sticks with the party no matter what. But it’s very well-educated, relatively wealthy, and it leans heavily toward the Democrats. In 2020, I think Biden made significant gains in the suburbs by only a single-digit margin. So this can be seen as an indicator of how well Kamala Harris will do in such suburbs across the country, which could really be an indication of whether she’ll be on her way to victory or defeat. (There are others), such as Cobb County and Gwinnett County in Georgia, the county around Detroit—
Collar counties around Philadelphia.
yes Montgomery County, Bucks County. Or Maricopa County in Arizona, which is actually the entire city of Phoenix, but in recent years has begun to function as a suburban county.
If she runs despite Biden’s performance, I don’t know if that will necessarily be a positive sign for her. That would be a sign that she’s probably on her way to building a similar coalition, but she might want to get ahead of him a bit because, based on trends, Trump is likely to increase support in rural areas and Democrats will need to increase their support in suburban areas to account for this. So if the race in Hamilton County is really close, I think that would be a sign that Kamala will get a surge in the suburbs that will give her a chance to win the states that matter. If she wins outright, I think it will be a very good sign for her.
So it’s going to be a place that’s really worth paying attention to because it’s very representative of the kind of places that are so important in these states across the country. In northern Indiana, there is a congressional district around Gary that represents what Democrats can do in working-class areas. And if the Democrats do very poorly, they risk losing the seat. This could be a sign of a potential red wave.
What other states are you going to watch?
Georgia closes very early (at 7 in the evening ET), and it’s my home state. So I like to pay attention to it. Virginia also closes at the same time. Their suburban counties are counted a little late, so they may not be able to tell us much. North Carolina also closes early (at 7:30 p.m.). in the evening ET). Georgia and North Carolina will be very, very important states. These are places where Trump’s numbers have fluctuated a bit in recent weeks. For him, they are mandatory states. He needs to win them to put himself in a position where he can win if he just knocks off one of the three Midwest states.
During the last election, there was a lot of talk about the Electoral College — about how it’s biased toward Republicans, about how unfair it is. But this time, there is not much talk about it. Is it because Trump could actually win the popular vote and lose the Electoral College?
People are more attuned to this than perhaps it is likely to be, but it represents a trend that could happen. (Trump) might end up only winning the popular vote by a small margin, but still winning the Electoral College because he could make a lot of gains in states that don’t matter — places like California or New York. where the issue of abortion stands. are much less visible, and voters are more likely to vote in protest against a local Democratic leadership they don’t much like. It could win Trump millions of votes that won’t actually win him a single electoral vote.
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He might pick up a lot of votes in rural areas of the Deep South, but outside of Georgia, it won’t have much of an impact on the Electoral College. He could win Alabama or Mississippi by a much larger margin than he did in 2020.
If Trump gets millions more votes in places like New York and California, that will be a big problem because he will challenge any election results that don’t go in his favor.
Even if it’s the result of perfectly legitimate things, it’s just that voters in these swing states are more mobilized, it’s going to look a little suspicious if Trump wins everywhere but the states that matter. These Republicans are willing to look for literally any evidence that the election is rigged.
OK, do you want to make a prediction?
Personally, I’d like to be Harris right now. I think a lot of the signs we’re seeing are that her party is strong. Many of the warning signs we could have seen in 2020 that indicated the polls were failing in a way that would damage her party are gone.
I don’t think early voting tells us much one way or the other, so I don’t want to give up on it too much. I have good reason to believe that the pollsters may have put their thumb on the scale to make Trump look a little stronger than he might actually be. (But) the poll is still slightly tilted in her favor even as it happens.
Okay, and here’s my last question. When do you think we’ll find out who won this race?
I think we can find out relatively early, even if it’s a close race, as long as it’s not less than a couple of hundred votes. After 2020, (the states) made a lot of changes that allow them to count their votes very quickly. In Georgia, for example, most votes will be counted on election night. I think we’ll see what that looks like by midnight. States like Michigan are also quick to cast their ballots. Pennsylvania, I think, is counting votes quickly now. Arizona and Nevada are still slow.
So when the race comes down to them, things could still be up in the air for a while. But I think we will know before 2020. I don’t think it will take all week.
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