KLIMAWIRE | Climate change has increased the maximum wind speed of all Atlantic hurricanes this year, scientists have found. The 11 storms were gusting between 9 and 28 miles per hour, driven by warmer average ocean temperatures.
The excess juice pushed seven storms at least one category higher than they would have been without the effects of climate change. And Hurricanes Debby and Oscar would probably have been tropical storms in a world without global warming.
The new study was released Wednesday morning by researchers at the climate science and communications nonprofit Climate Central. It is the latest study to warn of the dangers of an increase in hurricanes in a warmer world.
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“We know that climate change is increasing temperatures across the planet,” said Daniel Gilford, a climate scientist at Climate Central and lead author of the study. “We know that ocean temperatures, and particularly in the Atlantic Ocean, are getting warmer. So now we can calculate what this means for hurricane intensities.”
The full analysis includes not only the 2024 season, but all Atlantic hurricanes from the past five years. Between 2019 and 2023, higher ocean temperatures increased wind speeds in five of the six hurricanes, increasing by an average of 18 miles per hour. During that time period, 30 hurricanes were at least one category higher than they would have been without the effects of climate change.
And in 2024, every Atlantic hurricane strengthened to some extent by warming ocean waters.
The study also found that some hurricanes reached Category 5 disasters only because of the effects of climate change. This includes hurricanes Lee in 2019, Ian in 2022 and Lorenzo in 2023, as well as Milton and Beryl in 2024.
Milton was a particularly notable case, the analysis says. It gained 120 miles per hour in wind speed in less than 36 hours after passing over water that was more than 3 degrees Fahrenheit above normal temperature. A separate Climate Central analysis found that these water temperatures were 400 to 800 times more likely happening because of climate change.
The new research is based on a special type of analysis known as attribution science, which investigates the links between global warming and extreme weather events.
Using a combination of on-the-ground observations, statistical analysis, and climate models, the study compares real-world events to a hypothetical scenario in which human-induced climate change does not exist. This comparative study can help scientists determine the extent to which global warming has contributed to an extreme weather event.
In this case, scientists looked at the effect of warming water. Ocean temperatures are a major factor in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones, and research has suggested for decades that hurricanes will become stronger as sea surface temperatures rise.
This does not necessarily mean that the total number of hurricanes will increase. But the proportion of storms that achieve major hurricane status, Category 3 or higher, will increase over time.
The new analysis confirms that it is already happening. And it reinforces the findings of other similar studies, according to Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London and co-founder of World Weather Attribution, a climate science consortium dedicated to researching the links between climate change and extreme weather events. the world
The World Weather Attribution did a similar analysis earlier this year, he noted. The study used slightly different methods, based on a mathematical model, to investigate the links between climate change and hurricane wind speeds, with a particular focus on Hurricane Helene.
The exact numbers differed slightly from Climate Central’s findings, but they were “very much in the same ballpark,” according to Otto.
“It really shows that these two completely different lines of evidence are showing us the same thing,” he added.
A time of unprecedented disasters
It is not only the wind speed that is strengthening.
Research has found that climate change may increase the intensity of hurricane rainfall, making flooding more likely and damaging. And research suggests that water, whether from rain or storm surge, causes more damage in tropical cyclones than wind.
But overall hurricane damage, including water-related impacts, increases exponentially with higher wind speeds, According to NOAA. This means that higher category storms tend to be more expensive and deadlier.
All this underlines the importance of studies that focus on wind speed, according to experts. And they can help scientists better communicate risks to the public, saving lives.
“Does it matter that we are having more violent hurricanes? You bet,” said John Morales, NBC’s longtime meteorologist and hurricane specialist. “Because those are the ones that cause the majority of the destruction. And we’ve been seeing more of them in recent years.”
Hurricanes are an emerging risk of strengthening increasing faster than beforeadded Morales – sometimes it escalates to major storms in a few hours. This leaves emergency managers with little time to prepare communities and organize evacuations.
Hurricanes are also increasing in a way many communities have rarely or never seen before, he added.
Hurricane Helene, which carved its path of destruction from Florida through southern Appalachia in September, is a prime example.
An unusually large, powerful and fast-moving storm, Helene was able to maintain its strength to dump historic levels of rainfall on communities unaccustomed to the severe impacts of tropical cyclones. The storm left parts of western North Carolina inundated and aid cut off, killing hundreds of people.
“When extreme events occur there are huge numbers of deaths that people have never experienced before,” said Otto, founder of World Weather Attribution.
This is not just a problem with hurricanes. Scientists have warned that extreme weather events of all kinds, from wildfires to floods, are getting worse as global temperatures rise. And the options record or unprecedented events is escalating, meaning that communities around the world are at greater risk of disasters than they have ever experienced.
“Now we see time and time again that records are broken, wind speeds are higher than ever, precipitation is higher than ever,” Otto said. “We really need to use that to make sure people don’t die.”
Scientists and emergency managers are still considering the best ways to communicate the risks of escalating disasters to vulnerable communities. Some experts have spread the idea Adding category 6 to hurricane scale as tropical cyclones strengthen into record territory.
While the exact strategies are up for debate, increasing communication is key, Otto said.
“For people to be aware that they’re going to be hit with something that’s different from anything else they’ve experienced before,” he said. “And therefore more dangerous.”
Reprinted E&E News Courtesy of POLITICO, LLC. Copyright 2024. E&E News provides essential news for energy and environmental professionals.
