There is a chance that Republican candidate Donald Trump will win the US election for the second time by stealing it key battlegrounds From the clutches of Kamala Harris.
As the possibility of a Trump presidency moves closer to reality, Europe is poised to enter a new geopolitical and trade standoff with its largest trading partner.
The presidential hopeful, who claimed an early victory overnight, has promised that his potential term will be “golden age American.” That’s a loaded statement, especially for European countries that rely on US trade.
What will Trump do?
Trump has repeatedly teased an increase in trade tariffs from 10% to 20% (which he does “the most beautiful word”) to protect America’s domestic manufacturing industry. But that will make European goods more expensive and less attractive to American buyers.
In his first term, Trump set rates About European aluminum and steel. Although President Joe Biden suspended the tariffs, they have not yet been scrapped.
The rates are just the tip of the iceberg. Trump has teased China about raising tariffs to 60%, a measure the European Union recently took on itself. electric vehicle industry To limit the flooding of its market by cheap Chinese vehicles.
But if the US continues its high tariffs on China, it could lead to an all-out trade war.
“During his first term, Trump was obsessed with the US trade deficit with the EU. In his view, this is no different (apart from being smaller) than concerns about the US trade deficit with China,” Zach Meyers, assistant director of the Center for European Reform. say luck.
In 2022, the US trade deficit With China it was 367.4 billion dollars, while with the EU it was 131.3 billion. The tariffs could hit Germany, Europe’s biggest economy and an auto trade hub, particularly hard, with its GDP sliding. up to 1.3%.
“If the US applies more tariffs to China, this risks a greater volume of Chinese exports flowing into Europe. This, in turn, could force the EU to follow the US in increasing tariffs to protect European industry, increasing the risks of a full-blown trade war with China,” Meyers said.
Under a Trump-led America, Europe’s focus should be on striking a good deal that exempts its assets from levy.
But that’s easier said than done, Meyers said.
“Trump sympathizers like Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Italy’s Giorgia Meloni will break ranks and secure deals for their countries, leaving the rest of the EU in the cold.”
Will Trump push Europe to the right?
The pro-Trump club and its right-wing push is another cause for concern in Europe. Recent regional elections have already shown the growing power of right-wing leaders, including in the Netherlands and Hungary.
Like Orbán posted on Facebook on wednesday Celebrating Trump’s “road to a beautiful victory”, they have supported the Republican candidate and taken a page from his book on foreign affairs.
If Trump officially becomes America’s president, that “could make right-wing political forces feel emboldened,” said Steven Blockmans, senior associate research fellow at the Center for European Policy Studies. luck.
“They will feel empowered. They will have more appeal, I think. There are very strong lines of autocracy in Trump’s approach,” Blockmans said, noting that other factors influence the popularity of European political figures beyond transatlantic influence.
How Trump deals with the Russia-Ukraine war could also add to Europe’s litany of problems. He previously accused Ukraine of starting the war, vowed to stop funding its defense efforts, and promised to set one up. to finish in one day
Russian President Vladimir Putin sees Trump’s victory as an opportunity”resetThe country’s relations with the US. That could end well for Europe, as it continues to rely on American defense guarantees, or it could go awry as it struggles to secure its borders with limited support from its transatlantic friends.
Either way, a Trump 2.0 won’t be a walk in the park for Europe, but it remains to be seen how thorny the road will be.
