Amid skepticism about the accuracy of polls and betting markets in predicting presidential elections, another set of data may offer new insight.
Tens of thousands of Americans have already voted as both parties have pushed for early voting. In fact, Republicans also broke early voting records after being rejected in previous cycles in some states.
Although the candidates chosen by early voters are not yet known, data on who cast those votes provides insights into the election. according to a NBC News analysisPennsylvania has seen an increase in New Democratic women, while Arizona has seen an increase in Republican men.
In the Keystone State, crucial to Kamala Harris’ hopes of winning, Democratic women who did not vote in 2020 cast their ballots between October 1 and 28. For New Democrat men, the total is 21,292.
These exceed the number of Republicans who voted in 2020, 16,334 women and 16,679 men.
To be sure, not all Democrats will elect Harris, and not all Republicans will elect Donald Trump. Additionally, the number of new voters who have not registered with any party is around 8,000 for both men and women, representing a potentially crucial population.
But NBC noted that the overall number of early voting voters in Pennsylvania is already more than 100,000, surpassing Joe Biden’s margin of victory in the state in 2020, when he beat Trump by 80,555.
Pop superstar Taylor Swift, who grew up in Pennsylvania, may have something to do with the influx of new women voters. After Harris was admitted in September, he sparked one nationwide rush to register to vote.
Meanwhile, in Arizona, Republican men led the way among new early voters. Between October 15 and 28, that demographic cast 19,901 votes, according to NBC. For Republican women, on the other hand, there were 16,515. In the case of democratic men and women, the total was 10,487 and 13,533, respectively.
But the number of new non-partisan early voters was far higher than in Pennsylvania, creating more uncertainty about the outcome in Arizona. Arizona men and women in that group cast 15,899 and 14,536 votes, respectively.
As in Pennsylvania, Arizona’s total number of new early voters — nearly 91,000 — exceeds Biden’s 2020 margin of victory by just 10,457.
A key part of Trump’s campaign strategy is mobilizing low-propensity voters, those who don’t often turn out in elections. That has also come back to some the concern of Republican operatives those who do not see so many canvassers from door to door. In contrast, the Harris campaign has used a more conventional ground game with offices covering the battlegrounds and an army of paid staff and volunteers.
Polls remain tight in both states. According to the average of 538Harris and Trump are tied in Pennsylvania, each with 48%, while Trump is tied in Arizona, 48.8% to 46.7%.
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