A new analysis of voting models in the last election suggests that the party is very unprepared for the way forward.
A company sign for Kamal Harris and Tim Walts outside the polling station in 2024 in Arlington, Virginia.
(Andrew Harnica / Getti Image)
Any turning in American politics usually includes an unpleasant gaze back, and since the size of the GoP size troupe increases the prospects for the average period of 2026, the new rupture of the Democratic Party’s failures in the 2024 election cycle. On Monday, a Democratic poll released his in-depth debal analysis of 2024-more posthumous to date. Message of the top line reports It can be summed up as follows: a massive failure in the system.
Democrats with insufficient performance compared to the 2020 cycle in almost every significant battle field, and in almost all relevant demographic groups reveals a Catholic. The overall turnout was extremely high: 64 percent of voters to voters. In most post-war election cycles, the high turnout became an advantage for democratic tickets, but Harris-Walz is invariably lost among almost all electoral subgroups. In the largest group – the retreat of voters from the previous cycle – the support of Harris fell 2 points from Biden’s show in 2020. And the bad news continues to go when you drill. Haris Wolz lost support among all colored voters, and Latin American men first dropped below 50 percent of the democratic ticket, and saw that the disturbing gender gaps that worsen in the voter colors.
In addition, for the first time within the research of the Catholic data, new voters for the first time broke out against the Democratic Party. In 2024, thirty million voters have not returned to the ballot box since 2020 – the biggest such figure in the elections held in the 21st century. Voters Swing-Tut called “irregular” voters-they also flared against democratic tickets, causing the Trump-Vance Ticket to sweeps seven states of the 2024 battle. Democrats’ losses among voters who are not studying at the college-the transition to the election policy after the first victory in Trump’s elections in 2016, but the party also saw national support among the voters who were traveled in the college, decreased by three points, from 59 percent to 56 percent between 2020 and 2024.
When you returned until 2012 – the last time the Democrats confidently advocated the maintenance of the victorious national coalition, the figures are still more sober. Analyst Democratic polls of Rui Tyser, who interacted Unce A new new democratic majority Back in 2004, he recently surveyed the collapse of this sample mirage, which was now being renovated its newsletter Democratic strategy. Among the non-white working classes (ie, non-classy) voters, he writes: “Obama removed … He wore them 64 points in 2012. In the 2024 elections, profitability decreased to 32 points by 64 points. accurately reduce the 2012 democratic preference by half“Hispanic share of non-classy demographic work saw the coolest falls, with the enormous 38-point advantages of Obama in 2012. Only up to 6-point drawers in 2024. The distinctive gender support of the Democrats also shows the party in anxious decline; 11-point shift in gender from 16 to 27 points “Completely explained by Democrats that are the worst among mendon’t do better among women. “(Accent in the original)
A comprehensive gap, settled by a Catholic confirms that it is already painful for those who, after the recent misfortunes of the Democratic Party: its trouble will not be corrected by any lightweight disadvantage in party messages, or because it pushes the recently demographic demographic group or the economic region. No, the party is in the midst of the mass crisis of trust in the American electorate, and the key groups that were once referred to as the basis of a future democratic coalition that manages a large number.
Of course, GoP is not actually a presidency over the unshakable majority in production; According to a Catholic report, the signature of the party in the 2024 cycle among men from 18 to 29 years, as well as with Latin American and black men, may include voters who are most likely not to become ordinary GOP supporters in the long run. Earningly with the voters of “low sensitivity”, the Trump’s election group has changed its first national majority, but this group based on the basis is inclined either to suspend or switch their political attachments in changing economic and cultural conditions. And yet, despite GoP’s constant vulnerabilities, there is no doubt that the Democrats take a loss to create an effective counter -seat strategy to change their own prospects. The case of preserving the institutional guarantees of the US Democracy from the Maga authoritarian movement has largely fell to the Square-like and numerous trump prosecutions, as well as efforts to publicize the 2025 project and any hastily substantiated mass appeals.
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However, at the same time, the analysis of data of the punched elections only makes incomplete accounting of national policy behavior concerning both the skill of stories and the companies of mass conviction. That is why, at the end of his gloomy call of the voting, the Catholic team writes that “for the Democrats, to ensure the victory, they must at the same time (1) persuade part of the relatively high turnout for” voters “to vote for them, while (2) refreshing their voter pool, which, as a rule.
To get a broader sense of fresh political capabilities that cause democratic leaders and candidates, you can switch new Axios report About how GOP led by Trump is already trying to fight off losses in decisive averages of 2026. Pet Super Pac Trump, providing American greatness, has already revealed its multimillion -dollar military chests on advertisements that advertise the president’s economic agenda in the areas of eight vulnerable enterprises at home, while a short circuit threatens major problems for similar republican lawmakers. And Trump is motivated by something more than a simple, eight -year majority of his party. As a veteran of the two preliminary impeachments, Trump “knows first -mouth rate,” said former GOP Matt Garman. “Research, impeachment – he knows that everything is on the desperate (hockey) Jeffrois.”
This is a good rule when a political opponent moves preventively to close the source of political force in order to activate its efforts accordingly. However, the democratic leaders on the hill instead appealed from the effective dispatch to disable the impeachment resolutions proposed by Michigan Sri Tonedar’s representative, and to one of the most powerful allies of Tanetar, Texas Al Grin. And while the party swam a lot of outraged statements about brazen corruption, sanctioned in the framework of Trump’s second term, in things like its cute deals for Elon Musk and a gift of a new air force of $ 400 million from Qatar, Senate curved in support in support Genius of the act of crypto -industry– Terby, which strengthens one of Trump’s own main tributaries. Given the distant unrelated Democrats’ collapse in Congress before the law of xenophobic and demagogic Laken Riley – and given the leader of the majority of the Senate Church Shameful surrender During the negotiations on the shutdown of the government – the Democrats are already signaling the acute disgust to the implementation of the limited power, which they now possess the authoritarian regime. Is it surprised that voters across the position view the Democrats as restless prosecutors who are of public interest?
The same criticism speaks in the decisive issues of income inequality and political economy, which Harris Company has failed to synthesize in an effective message from left -wing populism. Now that Republicans have participated in their signing taxation and immigration bill, The only greatest distribution of wealth Seven legislation in American history, which causes any legislation in American history, is not what the party’s policy can avoid. Indeed, Obama’s critical anchor in 2012 was Obama’s own decision against his chief advisor to David Axelrod to Purchase the US Auto -US Auto. Such a decision presented the basis of the “blue firewall” of the upper western powers, which provided the re -election of Obama – and the unreasonable neglect of Hillal Clinton through the same firewall helped to seal her electoral gin after four years.
Now the economic populist flank of the party, as well as the cause of Trump’s impeachment, was taken by insurgent figures, which was the household Senator Bernie Sanders and the representative of Alexandria Okasi-Cartes, who conducted a number of punishment, which are conducted against the American oligarchy. But party leaders are usually A shinging vs. The term “oligarchy” is as too restored to the working class, which they have been systematically alienated since 2012. In other words, the Democrats continue, against all the evidence that gives them a resume of the anti-Status electorate to position themselves as sclerotic and scalp defenders of the status quo. And this resistance system for change continues, but the next refusal continues.
