Climate Opportunities in Greenland May Be Part of Trump’s Interest

Why does Greenland interest Trump? Climate Change is only part of the story

Who Meghan Bartels edited by Jeanna Bryner

President-elect Donald Trump has spoken of greed Greenlandthe largest island in the world, among others. “Greenland is an incredible place, and people will benefit tremendously if and when it becomes part of our Nation,” he wrote on Jan. 6 on the social network he founded, Truth Social.

The remarks came as a surprise to many Americans—and to Greenlanders, the island’s former prime minister, Kuupik Kleist. “We don’t really know what the precedent is,” he says. But the science offers some hints about Trump’s motivation, especially if he’s based on potential ice melting and other effects of climate warmingA phenomenon that Trump falsely denies is happening or is related to human activities.

First, some background: Greenland is home to just under 58,000 people, about one-tenth the population of Wyoming, the least populous state, or thousands more than the US territory of the Northern Mariana Islands. Formerly a Danish colony, Greenland is now internally autonomous, but is still under Danish control in matters such as financial policy, foreign affairs and security.

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And these problems are becoming more complicated as climate change accelerates, making the Arctic the focus of global attention. Greenland is “in a very strategic place in the Arctic for a lot of different interests,” says Melody Brown Burkins, who works on science policy and diplomacy in the Arctic and globally at Dartmouth College.

Perhaps the most talked about aspect of this strategic location comes from a less glamorous source: international shipping lanes. Ass Arctic ice meltsthe argument goes, the region will be more passable for ships, offering shorter routes to move cargo between population centers. And indeed, this trend seems to be underway: the number of special vessels entering the Arctic increased by 37% between 2013 and 2023, according to the Intergovernmental Arctic Council.

But the promise of polar paths may be overblown, Burkins says. “I think this huge idea that we’re going to send all the ships to these new routes to save money is kind of weird,” he says, especially given the harsh conditions in the polar ocean. “You can say there will be less ice, but there will be one more ice drifts to dig the vessels,” he says.

In September 2023, when Arctic sea ice was at an annual minimum, fewer than 1,800 vessels entered the region. That’s 2 percent of the global fleet and less than 63 percent of annual Arctic shipping traffic. Also, during the year, fishing vessels outnumbered cargo vessels. Combined, these numbers suggest that despite the recent growth of Arctic vessels, options remain limited, as Burkins suggests. “The seasons are not suitable, and the waters are very difficult”, he says about these northern seas, emphasizing that the infrastructure of ships, for example the presence of ports, remains scarce in the region.

That limited infrastructure also complicates the second narrative that has often been cited as a reason for interest in Greenland: mineral extraction, says Anne Merrild, a resource management professor at Denmark’s Aalborg University who grew up in Greenland. These highly desirable minerals are rich in rare earth metals and other materials that may be particularly useful in renewable energy technology, such as energy storage batteries and windmill magnets.

Merrild points out, however, that these minerals are not, as outsiders might assume, Buried under the Greenland ice sheet and frozen out of the hands of the miners. There are many on ice-free coasts, but firmly underground, awaiting export infrastructure, Greenlandic political will and foreign trade partnerships. Despite Trump’s comments, Merrild says his research has not shown much U.S. commercial interest in the island’s minerals. However, he and Kleist believe that under the right conditions, Greenlanders would be willing to allow mining as a way to diversify their economy beyond fishing.

“Every one of these is full,” Burkins says of shipping lanes and rare earth mining, as well as other explanations for Trump’s interest in annexing another government’s land. If national security is a concern, the US has had rights to exploit military outposts in Greenland since the mid-20th century. These advances have included a notorious ballistic missile site that was abandoned in 1966, which produced more than 47,000 gallons of radioactive waste and is buried beneath the ice sheet, as well as the only active Space Force base today.

Greenland is not often considered powerful, but it has real political ties to both Denmark and the rest of Europe, as well as long historical ties to Canada. Trump’s apparent interest in the island may also rub off on the Greenlanders extra leverage in these international conversationsMerrild speculates.

And while Greenland and Denmark are engaged in discussions about the island’s possible independence, it’s hard to imagine Greenlanders permanently severing ties with one colonial power to voluntarily accept another, making Trump’s threats to use economic or military force particularly problematic, Kleist says. “That’s very acceptable,” he says. “You just don’t do that in 2025.”