In the first half of June, world politics will be revived not only by the elections held in major countries such as India, Mexico and South Africa, but also by the abundance of international summits, conferences and visits.
Vladimir Zelensky met with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. in Manila, Philippines. Zelensky arrived in Manila after speaking at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore. Photo: Jam Star Rosa – Pool/Getty Images
Agendas are rich and varied, as many global issues require collective action, but one 27-month-old disaster continues to demand priority attention – the Ukraine War.
High-intensity trench warfare remains effectively a stalemate, but the political context of this long war continues to evolve, and concerted efforts by major world leaders, as well as initiatives by smaller states, could make a difference in determining its outcome.
Shangri La
The first high-level event in the series of June forums was the traditional Shangri La gathering in Singapore. IISS and in which many security officials are involved, inter alia provides useful opportunity to negotiate Discussions between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun have understandably focused on conflict management in the dynamic Asia-Pacific region, but Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy preferred to do made a long trip to make his case for expanding support for defeating Russian aggression. He was quite disappointed with China political drift Finding that Moscow was closer to the battle, he continued his efforts only in the Philippines warmer reaction.
D-Day Anniversary
A very different international gathering took place in Normandy, France, where many dignitaries, including US President Joe Biden, came to celebrate the 80th anniversary.c known as the anniversary of the Allied landings D day. For Biden, the ceremony will be part of his state visit to France, but more importantly, it will be an opportunity to connect with the success of President Ronald Reagan, who delivered an unforgettable speech. Pointe Du HocIn 1984, he was re-elected. Biden is trying to establish the strength of transatlantic ties and convince interested Europeans of his ability to win a second term.Evidence against Trump“. President Emmanuel Macron aspires to be Ukraine’s strongest supporter. confirms the right Zelensky was delighted to use Western weapons to strike deep into Russian territory he didn’t miss the chance Participating in Normandy celebrations.
Recovery of Ukraine and the G7 Summit
These are two events scheduled to take place around the same time Ukraine Recovery Conference (Berlin, June 11-12) and the G7 summit (Borgo Egnazia, Italy, June 13-15), and both are poised to bolster economic capacity essential to prevailing in the protracted war of attrition.
The first one is narrower in scope and is not about gathering new commitments for the rehabilitation of Ukraine, but more about coordinating aid, especially continuing work on the reconstruction of Ukraine. energy infrastructure It is subject to continuous Russian missile and drone attacks.
Second, it coincides with 50c This will deal with the long-term record of the exclusive “club”. wide range discuss issues and interact with many invited guests, including the President Recep Tayyip Erdoganbut the Ukrainian war is sure to be the main focus and Zelensky will try to make the most of this opportunity. It is a special question ripe for decision use of profits From Russian financial assets frozen in European banks for the reconstruction of Ukraine (primarily the Euroclear securities depository) appropriation These assets are about 300 billion euros.
Bürgenstok – the absence of Russia
One common denominator in all of these events is the absence of Russia, which is actually the case with the event scheduled for June 15-16 in Bürgenstock, Switzerland. Peace Summit in Ukraine.
For many potential participantsit is clear that it makes no sense to discuss the prospects of creating peace without Russia; but unfortunately Moscow’s uncompromising stance makes discussing these prospects with Russia even more fruitful.
President Vladimir Putin insists that any peace talks must accept this.reality on the ground,” which is essentially rewarding his aggression, an unpalatable proposition even for stakeholders who entertain his vision. freeze the war along current ditch lines. Zelensky has put a lot of effort into organizing this summit and is disappointed by China’s decision not to participate. Beijing denies his accusations of sabotaging the gathering. Russian diplomacy certainly attacked Zelenskiy’s plan furiously and relentlessly, but it could still have important results in expanding support for a just peace beyond the Western coalition that has steadily increased the volume and quality of military aid to Ukraine and rejected Moscow’s proposals. nuclear abyss.
St. Petersburg Economic Forum
Seeking to escape isolation, Putin is trying to raise the profile of the St. Petersburg Economic Forum, which has attracted hundreds of Western business and political leaders. But this time his the agenda is reduced Meetings with the leaders of Bolivia and Zimbabwe and advertised opportunities to do business with Russia attract a small number of entrepreneurs from the Global South who understand the reputational risks. Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit scheduled for early July In Astana, Kazakhstan may offer Putin a better opportunity to reassert his international credentials. A negotiated membership of Belarus is unlikely to upset China traditional leadership Focuses on strengthening its position in Central Asia in the SCO.
NATO summit in Washington
Perhaps the most effective of all forums will be the NATO summit in Washington on July 9-11.bridge” to full membership in the Alliance. At the previous summit held in Vilnius, the capital of Lithuania, Zelenskiy made a claim for membership more difficult and disappointed by the harsh realism of most member states. He learned from this mistake and this time he can make a lot of money deep support pool Due to Ukraine’s docile stance against Russia’s relentless attacks, it is also focusing more on immediate needs and preparations for a new counter-offensive.
Political preparation for victories on the battlefield
Indeed, only a succession of victories on the battlefield can ensure the success of a broad international effort to bring the war to a just and stable end. The June and July summits set the political stage for this advance, and so Moscow not only engages in a desperate diplomatic countermaneuver, but continues the offensive to demonstrate that the strategic initiative is still in the hands of Russian forces. .
But this war plan is just as flawed as the initial blitzkrieg strategy of seizing Kiev and forcing Ukraine to surrender. Heavy losses in inconclusive attacks are depleting Russia’s not-so-large battalions, and the combination of overheating and technological degradation of its economy weakens its ability to sustain a war of attrition. Discussions about the parameters of a peace agreement may seem premature and unrealistic, but they are in fact as important and timely as plans to rebuild the world order months before the memorable D-Day.
