ABC predicts Democrat Adam Gray will win California’s 13th Congressional District race, unseat Republican John Duarte and flip the last unsettled seat in the 2024 election.
Accounting for all races for the 435th House, ABC News estimates that Republicans will hold 220 seats and Democrats will hold 215 in the 119th Congress.
But it’s unclear how the vacancies — or, illnesses or other absences — will affect the day-to-day distribution of power when the House convenes on January 3.
President-elect Donald Trump He initially tapped three House Republicans for positions in his next administration: Reps. Matt Gaetz and Mike Waltz of Florida and Rep. Elise Stefanik of New York. Gaetz has already resigned from Congress, and last month withdrew from consideration to become President-elect Donald Trump’s attorney general. And although he was re-elected to his seat last month, he said he would not serve another term.
House Speaker Mike Johnson speaks during a press conference on Capitol Hill in Washington, DC, on December 4, 2024.
Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Republicans could hold a 217-215 majority while their seats remain vacant — the narrowest GOP majority in history — and special elections to fill those seats could take months to complete.
In this case, any single Republican could hijack Johnson: Losing just one Republican on one vote would result in a 216-216 tie.
The U.S. Capitol Christmas tree, an 80-foot Sitka spruce in Alaska’s Tongass National Forest, stands during the lighting of the Capitol Christmas tree on Dec. 3, 2024, in Washington.
Benoit Tessier/Reuters
The speaker has accepted a slim majority, which could pose a challenge to pass Trump’s agenda.
“Well, as we do here every day, we have developed an experience in this. We know how to work with a small majority. That’s our habit now,” Johnson said. “So yes, do the math. We can, we have nothing to spare. But all of our members know that we talked about it today, as we constantly do, that it’s a team effort where we all have to row in the same direction.”
But several older Democrats have lost votes recently, which could give Republicans a little more breathing room next year.
In this May 26, 2020, file photo, Assemblyman Adam Gray, D-Merced, addresses the Assembly at the Capitol in Sacramento, California.
Rich Pedroncelli/AP, FILE
In California’s 13th district, Duarte tipped Gray on Tuesday, he said Turlock Magazine.
“I’m a citizen legislator, and I didn’t intend to be in Congress forever,” Duarte told the newspaper. “But whenever I feel I can make a difference, I will consider public service in many forms, including running for Congress again.”
Gray got the win A statement about X Tuesday afternoon, extending his gratitude and saying “the latest results confirm that this district is ready for independent and responsible leadership that always puts the people of the Valley ahead of partisan politics.”
-ABC News’ Marilyn Heck and Benjamin Siegel contributed to this report.
