June 11, 2025
The exposures after the election lack the forest for the trees.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris.
(Mario Tama / Getti)
As the Democrats sift through the debris of 2024, they begin to carry out a familiar procedure: exposure after the election. Analysts armed with outbound elections, turnout and demographic breakdowns cut off the Kamala Harris with surgical accuracy. But, like many revelations, this risk does not have the cause of death, focusing too narrowly on the symptoms. All these reports of the choice are missing in the forest of tribal reality American policy for trees disabled data points.
A Last analysis from a democratic firm -talist Offers valuable information about Dropoff voters and demographic shifts. However, it also perpetuates some of the most problematic trends in a democratic political analysis – first of all, which helped to create conditions for the defeat.
The greatest weakness in the Catholic report – and in many other media analyzes and commentators and political operatives is the reluctance to seriously fight the center of racial and gender animus and grievances as central organizational forces in US politics. On the one hand, the Catholic report says that “men were moving to Trump in 2024 … These changes were seen in racial and other demographic groups,” helping to explain his modest improvements among Latin American and African American. On the other hand, this find is the seventh of their 11 “key conclusions”, making it only one tree in the forest of misery.
Similarly with the race. In the sixth conclusion, they mention that “Harris also saw the drops among white men with the highest degree.” In the elections, where the usual wisdom is that inflation and the price of eggs defeated the Democrats, what is the explanation of white people studying at Trump’s college?
14th-century philosopher William Okham popularized the foundation now known as Razor okkama This claims that the simplest explanation is usually the best. In a country that has never chosen a woman’s president and participated in a violent and bloody civil war, clearly lively racial policy, a dew and a gender that waved in the 2024 elections is the simplest. Another way where the Catholic could make its conclusions was to say that Kamala Harris won among each racial group – except for white people.
The reality is that Harris lost not because it was too progressive in cultural issues, but because the Democrats continue to shy away from the battle for existential issues, whether America should be a white nation or multi -democracy and whether a woman should be president. Trump’s appeal was always clearly racial – from “Mexicans – rapists” to “they eat dogs” – such Democrats remain horrified, calling it what they are, and setting a strong confrontation. And they remain surprised to run with a man who was caught on the tape, proudly boasting about a sexual attack on women.
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Although it is true that the turnout has fallen among key democratic districts, history is more nuanced than a simple story that a democratic failure check. Harris is actually increase The democratic voice is more than 2020 in Georgia, Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. In California, the democratic turnout decreased by almost 20 percent, but it probably reflected the reality that the state was not competitive, so the companies did not notice it and spent its means of mobilizing voters elsewhere. The case was not a fundamental deviation of the democratic message.
More importantly, Trump’s success has largely happened because of its ability to prove earlier, which do not rule out conservative fans – a phenomenon built for years, but insufficient attention. As I wrote in NovemberThe main attraction of history, which is behind many counties that allegedly “turned” from blue to red, is that the democratic voice has decreased sharply. And this happened after the previous sample of voters who were not voters of Trump. For example, in 2020, Trump galvanized 75,000 earlier, which did not pay Republicans in the Idalga district, Texas, while Biden raised 22,000 more democratic voters than Obama. The story was not Latin American voters who abandoned the Democrats; These were Republicans, finally mobilizing their supporters.
Perhaps the most insufficient analyzed aspect of 2024 is the role of sexism and misery. The United States has never elected a woman’s president. If -no. It is no accident or a statistical weirdo-it reflects a deep attitude towards leadership and authorities that do not disappear just because it is uncomfortable to discuss them.
The emergence of “monospla” and its impact on young people on racial lines is real, but it is built on centuries -old foundations. In a country where women could not vote until the 1920s and could not independently open bank accounts until the 1970s, the idea that gender plays no role in the defeat of Harris, at best naive.
What is the difference between the performance of Stacey Abrams and Rafael Warnok in Georgia in 2022 and Harris and Ruben Galega in 2024? Paul. A Catholic report is noted in the conclusion that “the support of the drop (for Harris) was concentrated among young voter cohorts, especially young people.” Does this inconsistency be the failure of the Democratic Party reports, or it is no surprise in a country where women are most people and still make up A total of 8.2 percent of S&P 500 executives? For many people, the cultural concept of the picture is not like a woman, and the inability to withstand this reality naive and stupid.
The Democratic Party faces real problems, but they are not the most analysts identifying. Parties do not need to diminish their positions or pursue after Trump’s voters. It should build an infrastructure and create a message to mobilize its natural coalition – a multi -anemist new American majority that chose Obama and Biden, and then stayed at home in 2024.
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A large investment will be required to win voters and turnout in color communities. This will require bold messages that do not apologize for being opposed to racism and for equality. And it should be understood that in the rapid diversification, the path to victory goes through the expansion of the rights and inspiring the coalition of transformation, without persecution of the recovery coalition when Ron Brown School succumbed to Obama, and then Trump’s coalition.
The Democrats did not lose the 2024 elections because they were too progressive. They lost because they were not progressive enough– At least not the ways that inspired their database to be overwhelming. Until we want to face this reality, we will continue to expose to death.
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