Financially, northern Europe was certainly doing better than it is now, but in terms of unity, the continent was deeply divided by the migration crisis of 2015. Populist Eurosceptic parties were also on the rise then, and after the Brexit vote in June 2016 there were widespread predictions that the EU would soon lose other member states and break up altogether.
Fast forward to 2025 and the EU has survived Brexit, the Covid pandemic, the migration crisis and Trump’s first term in office – and the countries are very much united after Full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine.
It was more of a stumble than a walk through these successive crises, but the EU still stands and the wounds of Brexit, for example, have healed over time.
After Brexit, the EU sees Britain as a close ally who shares the same values in a world threatened by an ambitious China, an expansionist Russia and an unpredictable, moody US president.
Meanwhile, NATO, while troubled by Trump’s commitment to the alliance, has been strengthened militarily and geostrategically by the addition of Sweden and Russia’s neighbor Finland as members following the Kremlin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Maybe, just maybe, this time around, Trump will notice fewer divisions in Europe that frustrate and antagonize him.
This is a Europe that recognizes the need to spend more on defense as it demands; that he is far more wary of China than he expects, and that he is more right-wing in his politics than he prefers.
Is this a Europe whose leaders are also standing up to Trump, despite threats and furor, when they feel he is crossing the line – be it for human rights, freedom of speech or toying with dictators?
The next chapter in the relationship between the transatlantic enemies is waiting to be written.
