Whatever HTS’s previous strategy, as it spent years building its power base in the northwestern province of Idlib, the momentum of the past week seems inexorably toward a direct challenge to Assad’s continued rule.
In an interview with CNN, HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jowlani confirmed that the rebels are indeed aiming to topple the Assad regime
So now the focus is on whether the Syrian leader can stop this new attempt to oust him.
The Syrian army – which is made up mostly of conscripts – could have lost the war years ago if outside forces had not come to Assad’s aid.
Soldiers are underpaid, underequipped and often have poor morale, and desertion has long been a problem.
As his army failed to hold Aleppo and then Hama, Assad ordered a 50% pay rise for soldiers, but this alone is unlikely to change the situation.
Russian jets were supporting Syrian forces in Hama, but clearly not strong enough to strike.
The lack of comprehensive military support from Russia has fueled speculation that Moscow may be less able to play the game-changing role it played in Syria in 2015. This will lead to an almost three-year war in Ukraine, the exhaustion of its reserves of manpower and military equipment.
But Russia still has compelling reasons to pursue Assad. President Putin’s decisive full-scale military intervention, which kept the Syrian leader in power when he was close to defeat, showed the failure of Western allies – particularly the US – to fulfill their pledges to support the rebels.
