The question “What will Putin do next?” usually followed by: “Would Putin use nuclear weapons in a war in Ukraine?”
The President of Russia made some ridiculous hints.
Announcing the start of his “special military operation” — a full-scale invasion of Ukraine — he issued a warning to “those who might be tempted to intervene from the outside.”
“Whoever tries to stand in our way or create threats to our country and our people,” the head of the Kremlin said, “they should know that Russia will respond instantly.
“And the consequences will be the likes of which you have never seen in your entire history.”
Western leaders have generally rejected what they see as the rattling of nuclear weapons. Since the beginning of the war, Western governments have crossed several Russian “red lines”: supplied Ukraine with tanks, modern missile systems, and then F-16 fighter jets.
The “consequences” threatened by the Kremlin never materialized.
In September, Putin announced that he was lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons – the decree was published this week. A clear warning to Europe and America not to allow long-range missile strikes on the territory of Russia.
Now this red line has been crossed. In his address to the nation, Putin confirmed Western reports that Ukraine fired US-supplied Atacms and British Storm Shadow missiles at targets in Russia.
Earlier this week, when the pro-Kremlin tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets asked the retired lieutenant general how Russia should respond to the Atacms attack on the Bran region, he replied:
“It would probably be short-sighted to start the Third World War because of strikes on weapons warehouses in the Bran region.”
It would be nice to think that the Kremlin shares this opinion.
But there was no evidence of this in Vladimir Putin’s address to the people.
His message to supporters of Ukraine in the West was as follows: this is a red line that I take seriously, I force you to cross it.
“Even Putin does not know whether he can use nuclear weapons or not. It depends on his emotions,” Novaya Gazeta columnist Andrey Kalesnikov told me recently.
“We know that he is a very emotional person. The decision to start this war was also an emotional one. Therefore, it is necessary to take seriously his idea of changing the nuclear doctrine. They say the fear of war should return and will deter both sides, but it is also a tool for escalation.
“In such an interpretation, it should be recognized that Putin may, under certain circumstances, use at least tactical nuclear weapons as part of a limited nuclear war. This will not solve the problem. But this will be the beginning of a suicidal escalation for the whole world.”
Tactical nuclear weapons are small warheads designed for battlefield or limited strike use.
