The prediction markets had a breakout moment in the presidential electionwhen they proved to be more accurate than most opinion polls.
So with several cryptocurrencies surging since Donald Trump won the election, perhaps the prediction markets can accurately answer the question, “How high will Bitcoin go?”
When crypto-based polymerizedwhere called French whale made a huge post-election gain, punters have different options on Bitcoin, which is currently trading around $91,000.
For a contract at what price Bitcoin will take in November, there is a 72% probability that it will reach $95,000. The price with the next highest odds is $105,000 at 23%, followed by $110,000 at 14%.
A separate contract asking if Bitcoin will top $90,000 on November 22 shows a 60% probability, while another contract asking if Bitcoin will reach $100,000 in November has only a 42% chance.
good prediction market KalshiA contract asking how high Bitcoin will reach before 2026 shows 52% odds for $125,000 or more and 44% odds for $150,000 or more.
If prediction markets aren’t your thing and you prefer a forecast from a more conventional Wall Street analyst, there’s Tom Lee, founder of Fundstrat Global Advisors.
between Advertisers surveyed by BloombergIt was the 2023 stock market call the most accurate.
As for Bitcoin, he said in March that it could reach $150,000 by the end of the year. Although it seems like there’s only a month and a half left in the year, Lee told CNBC last week that “six figures” are still possible before the end of the year in 2025 with further gains in 2026.
“I think now after the halving, Bitcoin is becoming much more important, and I think maybe the regulatory decay is reducing, there’s a big difference going forward,” he explained.
Bitcoin is already up 32% in November alone and has doubled this year. To reach $100,000, it would need to rise another 10%.
But there are signs that the post-election rally is stalling, with the stock market losing weeks. However, key components of the “Trump trade” are on the rise, for example Tesla stocks, Treasury yields and the dollar.
Meanwhile, Quinn Thompson, founder of the crypto hedge fund Nice capitalhe said luck this past week Optimistic Bitcoin will hit the $100,000 milestone soon.
“I feel good that we got it by the end of the year,” he said. “Very possible by the end of the month, but we’ll see.”
