With days to go until the final ballots are cast in the 2024 presidential election, a closely watched poll showed a surprising setback in a midwestern state with a track record of accuracy.
the last Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa poll A poll by Selzer & Co. showed Kamala Harris trailing Donald Trump 47% to 44% among likely voters.
That was reversed when the poll showed Trump leading Harris by 4 points. In June, the poll had Trump leading Joe Biden, who was still in the race at the time, by 18 points.
“It’s hard for anyone to say they saw this coming,” said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co. Sign up. “It’s clear he’s jumped into a leadership position.”
Selzer attributed Harris’ sudden surge to over-65 voters and independent voters, especially women, to the vice president.
Iowa was not considered a swing state in 2024, as it has become more Republican after voting for Democrat Barack Obama in 2008.
But political observers noted that Iowa now has an abortion law that bans the procedure after about six weeks of pregnancy, with limited exceptions. And Harris has made abortion rights a key message of her campaign.
The prediction markets have also tilted more towards Harris in recent days, a The top data scientist said Trump has lost his once formidable leadership.
Meanwhile, Selzer’s Iowa Poll is considered a golden poll and could have implications for other Midwestern states that will help decide the election.
For example, his last poll in 2020 indicated that Trump and other Republicans maintained large leads in the state, despite other polls that indicated a close race. In fact, the other polls were so promising for Biden that he even ran a campaign there.
But Trump won Iowa by 8 percentage points, and Selzer’s numbers warned that other states in the region may not support him as much as Biden’s consensus suggested. Four years ago, the critical “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania went for Biden.
Those states are once again hot with Trump leading in some recent data, but the surprising numbers out of Iowa may have more support for Harris in the Midwest than expected.
However, the Iowa poll was met with some skepticism Quiz guru Nate Silver Saying that Selzer is “probably” wrong. That is, what’s more, he has recognized that he is among the most highly rated in his two polls.
“In a world where most pollsters have a lot of egg on their faces, it has almost oracular status,” Silver wrote late Saturday.
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