Since Russia invaded his country three years ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has survived a military attack on his capital, assassination plots, corruption scandals in his government, political infighting, and his military’s dismal failures against Russia.
He was always supported by Ukrainians.
Now, with the appointment of Donald J. Trump to the White House, Mr. Zelenskiy faces a new challenge: maintaining good relations with the country’s most critical ally and a president who is dismissive of him and suspicious of military aid.
Mr Trump’s arrival comes at an uncertain time domestically for Mr Zelensky. The surge in popularity he enjoyed at the start of the war – with an approval rating of around 90 per cent – waned badly. The latest poll shows support has fallen by about 50 percent, and polls measuring his popularity against potential rivals have fallen further if the election is held after a ceasefire deal with Russia.
And a new challenge has emerged for Mr. Zelenskiy: a resurgence of political opposition in Ukraine, fueled by the prospect of a ceasefire and upcoming elections. His opponents are also encouraged by the firestorm of criticism directed at Mr. Zelensky by Mr. Trump and his aides.
Two rivals running against Mr. Zelensky in Ukraine’s 2019 election — former President Petro O. Poroshenko and former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko — have contacted members of Mr. Trump’s team. Ms. Tymoshenko traveled to Washington on Monday to attend some inauguration events.
Mr. Zelensky did not attend the ceremony. He said that he will go to Washington only at the invitation of Mr. Trump.
“He believes in a one-man show, but it’s not working,” Oleksiy Goncharenko, a member of parliament for the opposition European Solidarity party, said of Mr. Zelenskiy’s role as the face of Ukrainian resistance after a Russian invasion in 2022. More pluralism would help the war effort, he said in an interview: “We are not Russia.”
Mr. Zelenskiy has united his people and allied nations through war with his late-night videos and frequent trips abroad. Mr. Goncharenko said that, in addition, he surrounded himself with an ever-growing circle of loyal aides, limited access to opposition figures and usually ignored their advice. He added that a more active opposition now emerging would help the war effort.
With the war raging and the country under martial law, no vote is planned or even possible in Ukraine, according to election experts. Russia can disrupt any vote with missile volleys. Millions of Ukrainians, including soldiers in combat, refugees in Europe and people living under occupation, will be at risk of being disenfranchised. So, even though Ukrainians are fighting for their democracy, they are not able to implement it.
However, opposition figures do not see how defeats in the war have dented Mr. Zelensky’s popularity. According to the constitution, elections should be held after martial law is lifted. Parliament first introduced it Fight in February 2022after a full-scale Russian invasion and expands with periodic voting.
According to a December poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, by one measure Mr. Zelenskiy still has the support of a majority of Ukrainians, albeit slim: 52 percent still trust the president.
But the poll was more narrowly focused on a hypothetical presidential election, showing Mr Zelensky trailing the former military commander. Valery Zalujny, He was sacked by the president as part of an overhaul of the military command and is now Ukraine’s ambassador to Britain.
A survey by the Leading Legal Initiatives polling agency showed that Mr. Zalujny won a hypothetical first round of the two-stage election with 24 percent of the vote. Mr. Zelensky trailed with 16 percent; oppositionist Mrs. Tymoshenko took the third place with 12 percent of votes. Neither Mr. Zalujny nor Ms. Tymoshenko have announced their intention to run for office.
Declining support has implications for Mr. Zelensky beyond politics: It could undermine his role as wartime commander-in-chief.
Anton Hrushetskii, executive director of the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, wrote in his analysis of the decline in approval ratings: “It is not worth elaborating on what disasters can happen if delegitimization and control collapse.”
This did not stop Mr. Trump and members of his entourage from attacking Mr. Zelensky. For example, at a rally in September, Mr. Trump called Mr. Zelenskiy the “biggest salesman in history” for the billions in military aid he received to defend his country.
However, Mr Trump, speaking to reporters on Monday after the inauguration, praised Mr Zelensky’s openness to settlement talks and offered one of his harshest assessments of Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he said had “destroyed Russia”. “with war.
Mr. Zelensky and his aides fought to get into Mr. Trump’s team. The President of Ukraine met Mr. Trump in New York in September. Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian Presidential Administration, met on Capitol Hill in December with Vice President JD Vance and future National Security Advisor, Congressman from Florida, Michael Waltz.
Mr. Zelensky’s aides also tried to curry favor behind the scenes. According to a Ukrainian official familiar with the discussion, Kiev officials discussed the possibility of a deal to acquire the Ukrainian-language rights to Melania Trump’s book “Melania”.
The official said it was unclear whether any of the group had contacted Mrs. Trump’s aides or publisher. He described the discussion as nothing more than “brainstorming” by Zelensky’s aides to build a good relationship with Mr. Trump.
Mr. Poroshenko spoke with Mr. Waltz during a visit to Washington in December select a national security adviser. Mr. Poroshenko talked about the exchange Facebook post he promoted his ties to the Trump team and included photos of himself with Mr. Waltz.
“I have received assurances that the new American Administration is ready to demonstrate leadership in countering Russian aggression and establishing a just peace in Ukraine,” he wrote, adding that Mr. Trump’s team “remembers well our cooperation with him during my presidency.” .”
The person involved said that Mr. Poroshenko overemphasized the interaction with Mr. Waltz, which took place in the corridor and was not a formal meeting, at an event attended by both. Mr. Poroshenko has denied having any political goals during the war.
Oleksandr Merezhko, chairman of the Ukrainian parliament’s foreign policy committee and a member of Mr. Zelensky’s political party, said it was standard diplomacy for Mr. Trump’s team to contact the opposition party.
“Ukraine is a democratic society,” he said. “It’s great to meet the opposition”
However, he claimed that the opposition’s propaganda is “mainly about self-promotion and political PR.” Mr. Merejko tried a different approach to getting Mr. Trump to focus on the war: Last fall, he nominated Mr. Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize.
Mr. Merejko said he did not believe Mr. Trump harbored any deep-seated animosity toward Zelensky. According to him, the comment “biggest seller” can be read as a compliment.
“In Trump’s world, that’s a compliment,” he said.
