In late December, astronomers that use the asteroids (Atlas) telescope in the end of December, with the new asteroid next to our planet. 2024 YR24 double, size between 40 and 100 meters, were between 40 and 100 meters. It was closest to the ground closest to the asteroids, two days earlier, when Yr24 was about 800,000 kilometers of our planet, as far away as the moon. “It was zoomed by land,” says John Tonry, an astronomer of the University of Hawaii. These objects are not common; There are thousands of asteroids in this size or greater in the region of our Solar System. However, he deserved more attention to ensure that he had no risk to our planet in the future.
Those to appear on the influence, however, the monitoring observations have made the opposite. On January 27, it is a NASA service called Sentry. Those who have the impact of monitors, gathering the observations of telescopes around the world, has been renewed Yr24 Risk to our plans to an unprecedented degree. Yr24 accounted for 1.3 percent on December 22nd, 2032. This evaluation is at 3. Torino scaleAn asteroid is at risk for an asteroid to the ground on a scale of 1 to 10. Two days later, the European Space Agency (ESA) announced a similar risk of impactAnd when this story went to press the NASA Sentry service, the risk of influence rose to 1.6 percent.
It’s still a low effect of impact. “There is a probability of 99 percent lost, and that’s what we expect to happen,” says Davide Farnocchia, a study center of the study center of the Earth’s scientist in the NASA jet propulsion lab. This is the risk of greater impact for our planet, however, rather than any asteroid ApophisIn December 2004, approximately in December 2004, he had a chance to knock on our planet in December 2029. The better observation of Apophis was finally refined the orbit, the astronomers could be lost. They hope to happen with Yr24, but so far, the constant analysis has been in the direction of another direction. “The probability is increasing,” says Juan Luis Cano, Dera’s defense coordinator at the ESA’s Earth Object Coordination Center. And that can create an interesting dilemma.
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If an asteroid had to hit the Yr24 size our planet, it would not end life on earth, but it would be destructive. In this size, it would be equivalent to “10 Megaton Bomb”, more than Tonry says, to cause a wide range of regional decades. “All three or four miles would be crammed,” says Tonryk. “Everything is broken. It’s not a nuclear explosion, but it’s a very hot explosion. It would be a tremendous fire ball that would arouse 15-kilometers. It would kill a lot of people if they don’t get out of the way.”
Observing suggests YR24 is a stone asteroid than a rich metal, says Melissa Brucker, a scientist of the Arizona University of Arizona. This means that he probably would explode the pressure of the upper atmosphere instead of reaching the ground surface. This may affect the famous Tunguska event in 1908When the alleged asteroid or kite exploded on Russia and the 2,150 square kilometers of Siberia were equalized. “We believe that Yr24 tunguska is equal to the event (object) of the event,” Brucker said. Newest example in 2013 that the newly influenced a 20-meter-width exploded when the meteorite exploded Above the city of Chelyabinsk In Russia, break the windows and injure hundreds of people.
2024 YR4 Asteroids, since the Observatory of the South 2025 was found in December 2024, after January 29, 2025, the asteroid has almost 99% option to spend almost 99%. December 22, 2032, but a possible effect cannot be completely ignored.
Yr24 will be a success based on the project of the 22 project of the project on the 22 December 2032, when Daniel Bamberger says, when an amateur German astronomer says, said the asteroid’s influence is calculated. The area under threat is part of the Pacific Ocean from South America, the Atlantic Ocean, underground Africa, Arab Sahaya and South Asia. “I knew that one day we will find an object like this to have a reasonable influence on a reasonable effect,” he said.
Apparently, despite the remote, Richard Binzel, Richard Binzel, planted scientists from the Massachusetts Institute in 1997. It is approximately 1% small option, and it seems far from 2032 far, but the probability can quickly worsen and Attempts to deviate or relieve the operator It would take years to plan and implement. As the Astrument achieves the asteroid and its orbit, it can be lowered to the level 1. However, Orbital financing reveals Y24 to our planet to raise its risk at a level of 8, as many asteroids of that size the highest level. “8. The level means some kind of collision,” Binzel says.
The risk of the asteroid could immediately be discarded if astronomers find the historical observations of YR24 for a long time. “It will be clear immediately if it had no effect or influence,” says Bamberger. “That would be the end of the story.” Astronomers believe that such observations happened in the polls of telescopes when the previous passage was calculated in the Earth, but until now, the archive searches have been short. “We have been this two weeks now, and unfortunately we didn’t get it,” Canok said.
And it’s time essence. The asteroid is moving away from the ground and in April, no more will be seen to telescopes. On the outside of this slim, the asteroid will be able to evaluate its threat near the YR24 Next ground, in 2028, before the end of December 22nd 2032. If the asteroid has not yet, the impact is at risk, there would be a while to be a strong response. Rumors, therefore, may require you to create a rigorous strategy at the base, even if it could be remote, asteroids could go.
“If you suck in 2028, we could have a mission, basically everything ready to go when new observations come in,” says Tonryk. Otherwise, he added, “We could decide only” if the asteroid shows that the asteroid does not play the Earth.
Such a preliminary response could begin early next week, and by chance, the United Nations Planning Advisory Advisory Group and the International Asteroid Warnings will be carried out among Space Agencies. “We will look carefully at this object,” Canok said. If the risk is not discarded before April, in 2028 the prospect of a diversion mission must be seriously discussed. “It has been a very scenario challenge until it was eight years old (potential),” Canok said. “Three and five years are meant to design and build a mission. It would be really limited.” Such a mission design could be similar to the NASA asteroid double redirect test, which successfully changed orbit According to an asteroid slamming In September 2022.
If the deflection is not the option, the next “ground evacuation measures” can be to be explored in the advertised impact region, Farnocchia says. If the asteroid threat does not dissipate as expected, such Serious discussion Years would be outside, assuming they are at all. It is a huge scenario that will prove more of Yr24 observation that he will lose our planet and he has no risk. And there are many telescopes that can do these observations. Cano said that he asked for time to observe the asteroid in the NASA James Webb Webbi telescope, and Brucker can use the Hawaiian Keck Observatory to search YR24.
Without so many uncertainty, the answers to the astronomers offer YR24’s responses to optimism reasons. As we do not feel against the natural assemblies, especially the universes are as extreme as a space rock in the face of the earth. The medal decades first to detect an object like YR24, not referring to the opportunity to make their way and destruction. Today the space scientists are very close to completing the census of nearby Earth objects to find out if they are truly dangerous. “All the efforts we have done in the last 20 years are completely dedicated to finding asteroids and evaluating opportunities that affect the ground,” Canok said. “That’s why we’re here.”
