There is simply no effort from the Republican Party that comes close to the size and sophistication of the Worker Power canvas.
A female volunteer waves political literature during a local Democratic campaign in Phoenix, Arizona on September 7, 2024.
(Caitlin O’Hara/Bloomberg)
If the election were tomorrow, recent polls in arizona Trump is expected to win the state by a narrow margin. However, it’s more than possible that, as was the case with the 2022 gubernatorial race, which was ultimately won by Democrat Kathy Hobbs after trailing Kari Lake for most of the election season, the polls are missing some important underdogs. superficial tendencies.
Since July, UNITE HERE Local 11 campaigners, along with members of the social welfare organization Worker Power, have knocked on nearly three-quarters of a million doors, many of them belonging to under-voting groups such as youth, people of color, the poor or disadvantaged. It’s the biggest and most effective canvas the group has ever done, says Brendan Walsh, chief executive of Worker Power, who believes that’s what will make all the difference in the practice competition.
In 2020, the UNITE HERE/Worker Power canvas knocked on more than 1 million doors in Arizona and was a vital component in Biden’s efforts win 11 of the state’s Electoral College votes. This time, using sophisticated voter outreach software to reach Democratic, independent and undecided voters, they aim to knock on 1.3 million doors and speak to a quarter of a million voters. They will almost certainly exceed those numbers.
This week, Worker Power released data based on interviews with nearly 150,000 people across the state since the canvass was launched in July. They found a huge concern about reproductive rights, especially among affluent suburban voters, and that 80 percent of voters for whom it was the number one issue planned to vote for Kamala Harris. They found that a significant number of moderate Republican-leaning voters in these suburbs—those voters for whom a recent endorsement by former Sen. Jeff Flake Kamala Harris could matter – they planned to vote for Harris. And they found that among Democratic voters who listed the economy as their number one priority, a majority planned to vote for Harris. The finding suggests that Trump’s strategy of using economic issues to sway Democratic-leaning voters is not working in key state constituencies. Just as importantly, given the perceived strength of immigration as a major issue in the 2024 election, campaigners found that among the Democratic and independent voters they contacted, it was not a top-three issue. It has been superseded by issues around access to abortion, the economy and democracy.
Now, it is entirely possible that many of these voters, too often dismissed as “low propensity” or “low engagement” voters, will end up not voting. But over the past few election cycles, Labor campaigners and other groups have had notable success in attracting these voters. And despite efforts by the Republican Party to curb early voting, all Arizonans received ballots this week. This means, Walsh explains, that “every day now is as important as election day.”
Given this complex reality, the ground game matters more than ever. And there is simply no effort from the Republican Party that comes close to the size and complexity of the Worker Power canvas. “We have the tools to make a difference,” Walsh explains. “We’ve proven that in every election” over the past few cycles, helping deliver both U.S. Senate seats to Democrats, winning the governorship and the state attorney general’s office, and moving Arizona into the Biden column in 2020. That year, in the midst of the Covid-19 pandemic, UNITE HERE Local 11 campaigners were by far the most important in-person presence in an election that saw most campaigning efforts retreat online. And this time, they’ve built on the knowledge gained in 2020 to launch an even bigger effort.
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There are currently 250 local UNITE HERE 11 and Worker Power campaigners on the ground, most from California and Arizona, but some from as far away as Florida, Iowa and even another important state, Pennsylvania. Many of them have been knocking on doors in Arizona since July, braving triple-digit temperatures day after day to reach out to voters.
“When the election is in the 1 to 2 percent range, that’s when the work on the ground really matters,” says Walsh. “I think we’re doing better than the polls show.”
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