As Election Day approaches, former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain in a tight race to clear the 270 electoral college threshold, according to recent polls.
Republican presidential candidate Former President Donald Trump watches a video of Democratic vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris speaking at a campaign rally, Oct. 29, 2024, in Allentown, Pa.
AP
Both candidates are within the margin of error in swing states, with Harris slightly ahead in Wisconsin and Michigan. Trump has small leads in Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona, according to the report A survey average of 538 from friday
As previous elections have shown, the results of national races have changed from polling numbers, so it’s still anyone’s game.
However, given the data, each candidate has some chance of winning the Electoral College votes and the presidency.
Assuming the polls accurately reflect the state’s final results, Trump would win Georgia, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Nevada and Arizona and win the election with 287 electoral votes.
The former president’s lead in those states is no more than 2.4 percentage points, within the margin of error of any major poll, according to 538 data.
U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris speaks during a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania on October 30, 2024.
Andrew Harnik/Getty Images
If the polls underestimate Harris’ lead, he could win exactly 270 votes by winning one electoral vote in Nebraska, as well as all of the votes in Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania if he wins those states.
If the polls underestimate Trump’s lead, he could have the advantage by winning Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina, giving him 268 electoral votes. A Pennsylvania win would put him over the 270 mark in that scenario.
Former US President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks at a campaign rally in Butler, Pennsylvania on October 5, 2024 after his first terrorist attack.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
As of Friday morning, more than 65 million Americans have cast ballots, or 40% of the 2020 turnout, but there are no real numbers from those votes that will determine who will win the race.
Early voting data has shown that the majority of early voters are women, which has been praised by the Harris campaign and Democrats.
However, the data also shows that 41% of early voters are registered Democrats and 39% are registered Republicans. At the same time in 2020, 45% of registered early voters were Democrats and 36% were Republicans, according to the data.
