Only five of the 435 House seats won on Election Day are considered real draws. Of this number, two of the seats are in California (District 22 and 45), one seat is in Iowa (District 1), one is in New York (District 19) and the last seat is in Washington (District 3).
We’d wait a while for all these races to be called, California, for example, has more than half the expected vote share. But what we know so far seems to suggest Republican wins in three seats and Democratic wins. in the other two. If these trends hold true, there would be only one seat flipped for the Democrats: New York’s 19th District. While ABC News has yet to project a winner, the Associated Press called race for Democrat Josh Riley Tuesday night. The stakes here are high: The New York Times reported that about $45 million was spent on this competition alone. If Riley holds on, his victory would mark the second Democratic upset in The Empire State. On Tuesday afternoon, state Sen. John Mannion, a Democrat, defeated Republican Rep. Brandon Williams in the neighboring 22nd District.
In the remaining four down-ballot races, the incumbent seems likely to advance, but only by a thread. In Iowa’s 1st District, for example, Republican Mariannette Miller-Meeks leads Democrat Christina Bohannan by less than 1,000 votes and 99 percent of the expected vote. The second closest race may be Washington’s 3rd District, where the Democrat. Rep. Marie Gluesenkamp Perez currently leads her challenger, Joe Kent, by four points.
