As the Ukrainian War is a miserable engagement of three years, both ripe and ended for a weapon.
Ruma Aktar / Stock Figure / Getty Images
This war for US President Donald Trump is a meaningless waste of people and sources that should be suspended immediately. The Russian President Vladimir Putin is a struggle for Russia, which should prove the status of Russia as a global power.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is caught between these two inappropriate visions: Trump does not want to be accepted by Trump and a derogatory compromise with the attacker.
The gap between these positions is wide and in spite of high intensive expert debates Prospects for peace talksThe logic of war remains dominant and only due to the inertia of long-lasting battles. Such a scale and destructive force is a strong transformer that terribly violates Ukraine’s brutally and deformed Russian policy. The transaction promoted by Trump is perfectly economically, but does not ignore the depth of these distortions and trauma.
Essential economic competition
Unlike the rapidly moving Blitzkrieg, the long-running war is essentially economical competition, so Trump’s claim is a solid foundation in the claim of Putin To destroy Russia And the continuation of military operations only increases the scale of disaster. The most obvious indicator of the problems, passed – even official carefully the doctoral information is even a psychologically important limit of 10 percent. Putin can be contaminated by rubles with this sustainable weakening, but it finds an acceptable price to protect it steadfast. He also suppose to put Trump’s More pressure This clearly sensitivity.
Danger of application of tariffs – Trump’s selection tool – Russia’s export to the United States is insignificant, because other coalition partners have difficulty implementing these unpopular measures, except Planned EU tariffs In Russian fertilizers. Requires a collective movement of a well-coordinated collapse to break the hidden supply chains that keeps Russia Defense-industrial complex It goes, but the US policy is not currently aimed at the organization of such actions. Putin can be highly confident in the performance of the weapons producing plants, but in fact, most of the old Soviet arsenals are smaller than tanks and weapons gradually unloading.
Soldiers and military equipment
This supply of the military equipment may be a serious problem by the end of the year, but according to the expected Trump-Putin meeting, the Russian leader Perfectly feels positive About the combat capabilities of the forces. In the prospect of Moscow, every small Tactical gain Donbas provides strength to the negotiations as proof of control of the strategic initiative. This ruthless attack is a lot of expenses: Independent studies The names of 91,000 soldiers killed since the start of the war and are likely to be twice as high. Russian high command can accept this level of these losses, but what they do not understand, the seizure of one or other Ukrainian village for Trump, stressing it, stressing amazing losses the ceasefire immediately.
Russian oil revenues
The Kremlin may appreciate the importance of territorial interests, but it tends to assess the weakness of income from oil exports. In the last month, the recent collection of sanctions entered into force by Biden’s management, strictly squeezed operations “Shadow fleet“Tankers and Trump have not seen any reason to cancel these measures. The threat of a drop of oil in the price of oil It was broken Both Saudi Arabia and USA in the inner shale areas. EU is encouraged to plan a plan Reduction of price Currently in Russian oil that forms a barrel over 60 US. Ukraine Drone has reached new levels of accuracy and intensity since 2025 in Russian oil refineries and warehouses, and the destruction of critical assets adds to the penalty of the energy sector.
Possible peak
These blows and fists will aggravate the charm of Russia’s warfare, but the main effect become clear In the second half of the year and Putin tends to take the measure of the progress of the “Special Military Operation” one week. The evidence of Trump can move forward At this stage of a dialogue, this stage of a dialog is not more convincing than the warnings of many Western leaders, which did not affect the decision to start aggression in February 2022.
Possible for Putin is in the main value of the peak to increase their status As a state-of-esteemed statesman in connection with the US President, the Russian autocratic for Trump “ridiculous“The war may not be equal to him.
Waiting for an unsatisfactory consequence of face-to-face negotiations, the main Moscow commentators have started The right concern Maverick, who is prone to accepting protests as a personal insult, about the extreme reaction of the US President. The risk is not to apply for a nuclear blackmail in Putin’s choice, but it is due to the increase in military support for Ukraine, which Trump did not want to continue. Such a symbolic increase on top Expansion was discussed Europe can make changes to convert the tidal tide of direct and indirect assistance.
Munich Security Conference
Preliminary contacts between Trump team and Moscow probably gave disappointing results that a collection of proposals made in Washington DC Adjustments – and therefore cannot be submitted To allies at the Munich Security Conference. The Kremlin was slow to confirm the fact Telephone conversation Between Putin and Trump and just get ready to be ready “has pledged“With the Mercurial US leader. Trump, the last thing he wanted from a meeting, another lecture of Putin’s imaginary complaints and exaggerated requirements, but did not include possible concessionsEven in this impossible goals “demilitarization“Ukraine.
The mismatch between Putin’s concept and Putin’s belief in Putin, who is a desire to stop Trump’s meaningless war, and Zelensky is very far from the gap to get rid of the bridge.
Trump needs a stronger capture in the upcoming talks, but the construction of a power position is a complex task that requires coordination with many allies and cannot compensate for the restrictive transactions.
- Paul K Baev is a research teacher in PRIO
- This text was first published Global Panorama 11 February 2024
