President-elect Donald Trump he will take office in January in the House of Representatives, with a slim GOP majority that offers Republicans little margin for error.
On Wednesday night, one of California’s two races went Democratic, giving Adam Gray a roughly 182-vote lead over GOP Rep. John Duarte in the interior of the San Joaquin Valley’s 13th Congressional District. In California’s 45th Congressional District, anchored in Orange and Los Angeles In the counties, Democrat Derek Tran has about 600 votes over Republican Rep. Michelle Steel.
In Iowa, GOP Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks has won Iowa’s 2nd Congressional District by 800 votes.
If these results hold, the House will begin with a 220-215 GOP majority, even narrower than the current congressional margin.
The US Capitol in Washington on November 24, 2024.
Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images
Republican ranks, however, drop to 219 with the resignation of former Rep. Matt Gaetz. It could drop to 217 depending on the timing of the resignations of Reps. Elise Stefanik, RNY., and Mike Waltz, R-Florida, who will join the Trump administration as U.S. ambassadors to the United Nations and national security. consultant, respectively.
That would send the chamber to a 217-215 margin, essentially a one-seat majority on votes where Democrats cling to opposition and historically hold a slim advantage.
Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., urged Trump not to appoint more House members to his administration.
“It’s a big problem to have,” Johnson said on Fox News earlier this month. “We have an embarrassment of riches in the House Republican Congress. Lots of talented people who strongly agree with the America First agenda, and could serve the country well in other capacities.”
“But I told President Trump, enough already, give him some peace. I have to hold on to that majority. And he understands, of course, that we have been talking almost every hour of every day,” he added.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson speaks during a press conference for House Republicans following a leadership meeting on Capitol Hill in Washington, Nov. 13, 2024.
Nathan Howard/Reuters
Already, Republicans have wrought chaos in the current Congress.
Movements seen outside the pale in the halls of Congress have grown enough to block votes on bills. And, let’s not forget, the Republican divisions left the House without speakers for days, both when Kevin McCarthy initially wanted to get the necessary support, and again put down the gavel and the members were torn for days before rallying behind Johnson.
Heading into the current Congress, Republicans have sought to grease the skids a little more to try to prevent such public skirmishes from happening in the future.
The US Capitol in Washington on November 24, 2024.
Daniel Slim/AFP via Getty Images
Republicans agreed to increase the number of lawmakers needed to trigger a vote to remove a speaker from one to nine. In return, members of parliament who oppose proposals to vote on the bills will not be retaliated against.
But with such a narrow margin, any Republican could throw the floor into chaos and block key party-line bills.
One of the biggest items in the legislation for business is an extension of the 2017 tax cuts that Trump pushed for in his first term. They expire next year, and Republicans hope to extend them, but 12 House Republicans voted against the 2017 GOP tax bill, which then passed only thanks to a larger majority.
In 2017, when Republicans approved a rewrite of the tax code in the first Trump administration, 12 House Republicans — part of a larger majority at the time — voted against the bill, but did not prevent it from passing.
Republicans entered the 2023 118th Congress with 222 seats — a 10-seat margin over the 212 Democrats — with the majority spending weeks in the winter selecting a House speaker and part of the fall selecting a replacement.
Even a few illnesses, special election surprises or absences could disrupt the Republicans’ careful balancing act.
In 1917, the Republicans held the narrowest majority in history, with a 215-213 advantage over the Democrats. But a group of minor party lawmakers worked with the minority to pick a speaker, handing the chamber over to Democrats. According to Pew.
