Members of Parliament running for office hate tough votes. And for senators in purple states in two years, those tough votes come early.
President-elect Donald Trump is moving at a lightning pace to restock his administration, mixing up conventional picks like Florida Sen. Marco Rubio for secretary of state, Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general and Robert F. Kennedy’s controversial moves. , Jr. of the Secretary of Health and Human Services. For front-line senators who hold the key to the next Senate majority, navigating their confirmations will be a minefield.
Republicans will defend the seats of Sen. Thom Tillis of North Carolina and Sen. Susan Collins of Maine, while Democrats are working to protect Sen. Jon Ossoff of Georgia and Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan. Confirmation votes on Trump’s Cabinet picks offer an opportunity to demonstrate bipartisan good faith, but backing a controversial candidate risks opening up the possibility of a race to attack.
“If they’re smart, then it’s an important factor. The midterms are still a long way off. Voters generally have short attention spans, so it’s debatable how much they’ll remember that stuff. But I think it’s especially important for people who can take heat from the right. ” said one GOP strategist.
Some of Trump’s nominees won’t face much of a hurdle.
Rubio has already won praise from some Democratic senators, and members of the chamber often give him some deference when it comes to confirming Cabinet appointments. Waltz and Ratcliffe may have narrower margins than Rubio, but they are among Trump’s most common picks.
Senator Marco Rubio of Florida speaks during the second day of the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 16, 2024.
Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
But Gaetz and Kennedy, along with Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s pick for director of national intelligence, and Fox News anchor Pete Hegseth, who has been tapped to run the Pentagon, are unlikely to have Democratic support. With Republicans winning up to 53 Senate seats this month, that leaves little margin for error if they hope to be confirmed.
Already, Collins and Alaska Sen. Lisa Murkowski have expressed skepticism about some of Trump’s options, while other Republicans, including Tillis, have remained noncommittal.
The pressure will be on the Republicans, however.
Trump won outright, and before announcing his most controversial cabinet picks, Capitol Hill Republicans were touting the need for unity as they prepared to take over a unified government in January.
Sources believe Collins is in a league of his own. The top Republican, who is likely one of the few, if not the only, candidates who can win his state, hopes to have an especially wide opportunity to run against a candidate he sees as unfit.
And with the base so out of step with Trump, any challenge from other GOP lawmakers could draw fury from the popular president-elect — fury that could lead to a primary challenge, and not just for swing-statters like Tillis.
At the same time, supporting a controversial candidate who pushes too far on the ballot once confirmed risks becoming a general election issue.
“There are going to be Trump voters who remember how Republican senators handle these nominations. And so I think the bottom line for senators this cycle is watching how they handle Trump’s nominees,” the Republican strategist said.
“Any of these other safe-state Republicans in the cycle, it’s up to Trump to make trouble for them on the right if he wants to,” the person added.
Still, emphasizing the catch-22, votes for candidates deemed too controversial could end up in the latest ads from Democratic opponents who call Trump a “rubber stamp,” the source warned.
Rep. Michael Waltz, R-Florida, speaks during the third day of the 2024 Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, July 17, 2024.
Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images
The pressure is also on members of the Chamber.
House members won’t have a vote in the confirmation process, but they will inevitably ask a series of questions about candidates like Gaetz. Those who ride in purple districts can choose to punt, highlighting their lack of votes, or they can bash the most controversial contenders, risking even Trump’s blow.
Matt Gaetz arrives before President-elect Donald Trump speaks at an America First Policy Institute gala at Mar-a-Lago on November 14, 2024 in Palm Beach, Florida.
Alex Brandon/AP
“I would try to push it to the Senate first and see if you can get it done. And if you don’t get it, I would advise you to stand up for your principles and not make a way out of it for someone else that you didn’t choose yourself,” said William O’Reilly, a New York GOP strategist. one, home to many moribund House Republicans. “Loyalty goes so far, the public is looking for legislators with a backbone and a little sense.”
Democrats are also on their own.
Ossoff and Peters are the Democratic front-runners for the Senate in 2026. Offering support to some of Trump’s picks, such as Rubio, Rep. Mike Waltz, R-Florida, national security adviser and John Ratcliffe, R-Texas. The CIA director can reinforce mutual good faith. But going too far risks turning off Democrats, a big risk when they need all their backers emboldened in states Trump won this month.
“If you’re Waltz, Ratcliffe and Rubio, Ossoff and you vote for them, independent voters see you as a straight shot, and can say it’s bipartisan, because it was,” said one Democratic strategist in Georgia. “And then he says, ‘look, I voted for everyone but Gabbard on his national security team.’
To be sure, there are many other factors at play in midterm races. The incumbent challenges are far from over, with the midterms coming nearly two years after confirmation votes began in January, and some candidates may not even be on the ballot.
But already, the knives are out.
“President Trump and JD Vance are going to run the Senate,” Alabama Sen. Tommy Tuberville, a Trump ally, said on Fox Business this week. “If you want to get in the way, fine. But we’ll try to get you out of the Senate, too, if you try to do that.”
