Is the president of Ukraine weakened?
Vladimir Zelensky and Donald Trump on September 27, 2024 in New York. Photo: Alex Kent/Getty Images
One of the most famous war historians of all time, Sir Michael Howard, often noted that wars are won or lost as a result of events far from the front line. The past few weeks have powerfully reminded us of the truth in Howard’s observations.
Even without the rapidly escalating war between Israel and Hezbollah, there was always the possibility that Zelensky’s “victory plan” would fail without any political impact in the United States or elsewhere. The plan’s major weakness is its reliance on other countries to take decisive steps in Ukraine’s favor, making Ukraine’s freedom struggle dependent on “events far from the front.”
There was little new in the “Victory Plan” and instead focused on familiar themes, such as Ukraine’s need for more long-range weapons systems and lifting restrictions on their use against targets inside Russia.
The purpose of the entire “victory plan” is to strengthen Ukraine’s military position enough to pressure Putin into good faith negotiations, and this in the relatively near future. Unfortunately, there is no indication that this goal has been achieved. Additional support for Ukraine has been promised from Biden, but nothing that has the potential to significantly change the overall situation in favor of Kiev in the near future.
There is a line from NATO’s summit in Washington in July to last week’s UN General Assembly and meetings with senior US politicians. Both were high-profile events that failed to materialize their potential to significantly accelerate support for Ukraine. This is a concern because it is likely that the will to do so is not really there. Furthermore, the impression given by Zelenskiy is that the “victory plan” has been oversold, with little impact following much fanfare.
The president of Ukraine has not read the political mood in the United States well as the election campaign heats up. This is quite surprising, as one of Zelenskiy’s greatest strengths has been his ability to deliver political messages that resonate well.
In many ways, the idea of presenting Biden and Harris with a “winning plan” at this time was a good one, giving Biden a chance to “make history,” as Zelensky called it. Biden likely wants to make history and already has with his decision not to seek re-election. The next goal is to ensure that Kamala Harris wins the November presidential election. In this context, increasing support for Ukraine may not be a win-win for Harris.
In US foreign policy, most of the pieces on the Middle East chessboard have been overturned. Until the presidential election, all the foreign policy decisions of the current administration will only be believed to have a positive or negative effect on Harris’ electoral chances.
Zelensky’s visit may further strain relations with the Republicans. The relatively cold shoulder that Kiev has received from Trump and mainstream Republican politicians shows that they are in solidarity with the Democrats on this point – increasing support for Ukraine does not win anyone votes.
Zelensky’s visit to the ammunition factory in Pennsylvania was evaluated by Republicans as an inappropriate interference in the US elections. Things didn’t improve when Zelensky said that “Trump doesn’t really know how to stop a war,” which, while certainly true, was a serious diplomatic blunder. In his press conference with Trump, the former president paid more attention to saying good things about Putin, not about Zelensky.
Last week was supposed to be Ukraine week at the UN and with key US politicians. No new decisions of a principled nature came out of the Biden administration. Unfortunately, Zelensky also appears to have soured relations with Trump and key Republican politicians.
A positive note for Kiev was that only 17 countries attended, while China and Brazil tried to promote a strong pro-Russian peace plan on the sidelines of the General Assembly.
Zelensky can probably draw three conclusions:
- The top priority of the Biden administration is for Harris to win the election, and not much will happen until then.
- If Trump becomes the next president, Ukraine, Europe and others face an uncertain future.
- US and UN visits have shown that the Ukrainian president has little ability to generate international support, resulting in a weakened president on the domestic front as well.
Events far from the frontline can still have major consequences. Michael Howard was known for nodding his head.
The author
Lieutenant General (ret.); President of Norges Forsvarsforening (Norwegian Defense Association – NFF); Senior advisor to the Norwegian Atlantic Committee. Dalhaug served as the General Manager of the OSCE Special Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (2016-2019).
