Tens of millions of early votes have been cast. What could it mean for Election Day?

Ass The elections The day is approaching, tens of millions of voters have already cast their ballots across the country.

Through mail-in ballots or in-person polls, more than 68 million Americans, roughly 43 percent of 2020 turnout, had voted against standing in line on Election Day as of Friday afternoon, according to the data. University of Florida Election Laboratory.

Academics, journalists and pundits have analyzed the rudimentary and limited data from early voting numbers for clues about next week’s outcome.

That picture, however, is not black and white, according to Charles Stewart, director of the election data science lab at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

“It’s like talking about the weather,” he said. “The candidates, the press, etc. — they’re really just trying to draw conclusions from the face value of the data, but there’s really not much to say that’s winning.”

That said, Stewart said the early voting data provides some clues about this year’s voting patterns and overall turnout — indicators that could help explain how the election turned out.

A change to the way people vote early

Voting trends have shown that more people are choosing to vote before Election Day, and the number has risen over the past 30 years, but 2020 has been a big surprise, according to Stewart.

In the last presidential election, 69 percent of the 158 million total votes cast before Election Day were cast by mail, which includes mail-in ballots cast in person or at early voting sites, according to MIT data.

According to the data, 43% of early votes in 2020 came from postal ballots.

Stewart said the COVID-19 pandemic caused many voters, who were already highly engaged and wanted to be safe, to choose to use mail-in ballots or smaller voting lines, if available.

“There was speculation about what would happen to the change once the pandemic was over,” he said.

However, this year’s early voting has dropped in the number of voters choosing to vote by mail, Stewart said.

“The main trend I’m seeing is that interest in voting by mail has shifted to voting in person,” Stewart said.

He noted that the change is evident in Georgia, which had a record number of early voters, with more than 3.8 million votes cast on Friday. Approximately 92% of them were presented at the polling stations and the rest by mail Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.

Stewart said some states, including swing states Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Arizona, offer early voting only through in-person absentee options. Under this option, the voter must request an absentee ballot, complete it, and then drop it into a ballot box or designated location, and they will be counted as a mail-in voter.

Some voters may not have the time or energy to take those extra steps to vote early, and Stewart said he will likely vote in person.

“If you have to vote early, you have to figure out where that precinct is, but you have to know if it’s closer to your home or your errands. With mail-in voting, you have to make the effort to apply, fill it out, and hopefully get the mail out on time,” he said. . “By voting on Election Day, you’ll likely have a polling place much closer to you.”

The preference for the early voting method isn’t the only thing that’s seen a reversal, according to Stewart.

The partisan numbers give no indication of the outcome

Stewart said historical trends show that the majority of early voters made up their minds long ago and are likely to be politically active.

This year’s data shows, he said, that the bit has made a big difference in party turnout in some battleground states, according to the University of Florida’s Election Lab.

Registered Republicans have seen higher early vote turnout in the battleground states of Arizona, Nevada and North Carolina this election than in 2024, data showed as of Friday.

Typically, Democrats have had an advantage in early voting. Still, Trump has pushed his supporters to vote earlier and that appears to be having an effect, Stewart said.

While Republican officials are touting the higher numbers as a sign of growing support, Stewart cautions there are more nuances in the data.

He noted that a large number of registered Republicans who voted so far came from people who voted on Election Day 2020 and were not new voters.

Stewart said that would mean fewer Republican voters would vote on Election Day and so their votes might not be reported until much later, or even days, on election night.

In 2020, many swing states ramped up their Democratic narratives on election night and during the week, creating a “red saffron” effect on the outcome.

That mirage and “blue wave” may be muted this time, Stewart said.

“Whatever the blue shift is, it’s probably going to be less steep,” he said.

What gender, race have to say about early voting

Democrats have cited the gender gap as a factor in their favor in early voting numbers, with more than 54 percent of women voting as of Friday, according to data from the University of Florida.

Stewart said that assumption is unremarkable.

Women have always been the majority of voters in presidential elections, until 1980.Rutgers University Center for Women and Politics.

Stewart said that’s also true with early elections.

“It is not always obvious to the public that there has been a gender gap,” he said.

When it comes to race, white voters are more likely to vote by mail than black voters, according to MIT data.

Stewart said this stems from traditions dating back to the civil rights movement.

“African Americans fought and sometimes died to be able to go to the voting booth. That has been ingrained in the community,” he said.

That practice is a factor in large numbers of black voters heading to early voting sites in states like Georgia and South Carolina where that option is available.

Churches, civil rights groups and other organizations with ties to the Black community are encouraging voters to go to the polls early, using campaigns like “soul voting” to avoid complications on Election Day.

Groups in Georgia, in particular, have insisted on early voting to avoid some of them restrictive voting laws which have been launched since the 2020 elections.

As of Friday afternoon, more than 1 million black voters have cast ballots, according to the Georgia Secretary of State.

“Mobilization efforts have clearly proven effective,” Stewart said.

Signs point to high participation

Stewart said the definitive conclusion from early voting data is that this year’s overall turnout will be on par with 2020, which was the highest voter turnout in more than 100 years.

“160 (million) could be high,” he estimated.

Stewart said early voting trends have shown that those under 25 have yet to vote and will typically line up on Election Day.

“On Election Day those populations are heavily represented,” he said.

Stewart reiterated that once the pandemic is over, a large number of early voters in 2020 will likely return to the polls on Election Day, especially if an option presents itself that is easier for their locations and schedules.

As for the future, Steward predicted that the surge of Republican voters will be able to vote forward in future cycles.

“The data is showing that organic increase in early voting even after the pandemic,” he said. “Voters want more options, and they will seriously consider voting if they have more options.”