LONDON — The stunning fall of President Bashar Assad’s regime Syria It presents a “moment of historic opportunity,” President Joe Biden wrote on Sunday, as rebel fighters and Damascenes celebrated the end of a 14-year war against the authoritarian government.
But, as the president added, “it is also a moment of danger and uncertainty”.
The uprising that began with a protest march in the southern city of Daraa in 2011 ended with celebratory shootings in Damascus in 2024.
Last month’s surprise rebel attack from the northwestern province of Idlib showed that the regime in Damascus was in vain. Sponsors in Moscow, Tehran and Beirut were unable or unwilling to respond, perhaps because their attention and resources have been diverted by the wars in Ukraine, Lebanon, Gaza and elsewhere.
The story of the fall of Damascus was — without a doubt — written in Donetsk and Dahiya. The coup, however, was inherently Syrian.
A Syrian anti-government fighter stands next to a large banner depicting Syrian President Bashar Assad in Hama on December 5, 2024.
Bakr Alkasem/AFP via Getty Images
The offensive that ousted Assad was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, an Islamist group rooted in Al-Qaeda. The group is listed as a terrorist organization in the US and the European Union.
White House National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan said over the weekend that the group’s background is “a concern,” noting that elements of the group are affiliated with organizations that have “American blood on their hands.”
HTS leader Abu Mohammed al-Jolani has become the most recognizable face of the Syrian opposition. On Sunday the VIII of Damascus. Speaking at the 17th-century Umayyad mosque, Jolani said the opposition’s victory was “historic for the region” and that “Syria is being cleansed.”
It is unclear whether and how Jolani — who is increasingly using his real name Ahmed al-Sharaa rather than his name — will be able to exercise control over the various factions of rebel forces drawn from across the country.
What does the US think?
American officials worry that the power vacuum could allow ISIS to re-emerge. The US carried out 75 strikes against ISIS targets in central Syria on Sunday, which Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said was designed to “keep pressure on ISIS”.
“As this develops, there’s a chance that elements in the field, like ISIS, will try to take advantage of this opportunity and try to regain capability,” Austin warned.
The future shape of US-Syrian relations will depend on the composition and direction of the next government in Damascus.
The White House may take some comfort from Jolani’s speech at the Umayyad Mosque on Sunday, in which he lamented that Syria was the “playground of Iranian ambitions.”
“We will remain vigilant,” Biden said Sunday after Damascus fell. “Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups that toppled Assad have a sordid history of terrorism and human rights abuses.” The President, however, added that the groups are “saying well now”.
President Joe Biden speaks about the sudden fall of the Syrian government at the White House in Washington, DC on December 8, 2024.
Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
“But as they take on more responsibility, we will evaluate not only their words, but their actions as well,” Biden added.
Thomas S. Warrick, the former undersecretary for counterterrorism policy at the Department of Homeland Security, said the U.S. “has a big stake in what’s next,” even if it was not directly involved in Assad’s ouster.
“A more stable Syria freed from Iranian and Russian subjugation,” Warrick wrote, could allow millions of refugees to return home, end its role as a conduit for Hezbollah to threaten Israel, and perhaps join the Abraham Accords at some point in the future. .
“All these unthinkable things are now possible,” wrote Warrick, now a non-resident fellow at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative. “But this won’t happen on its own, without outside help and support. Post-war planning needs to move at full speed.”
The incoming Trump administration will have to define a policy approach to Syria. Some will be skeptical of its success, but others — Warrick wrote — will note that “undermining Iran’s influence, supporting Israel’s security, and peace in Lebanon are collectively one of the greatest victories a Trump administration can achieve.”
Syria’s power struggle
In a recent interview with CNN, Jolani said Syrians should not fear the Islamism of HTS. “People who fear the Islamic government have either seen wrong implementations or don’t understand them properly,” he said.
As the rebels arrived in Damascus, Assadist Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali said the outgoing regime would “reach out” to the opposition and help in the transition of power. Jolani said on Sunday that Jalali will remain in his post to oversee state bodies during the transition period.
Jolani and his HTS will compete for influence in the new Syria.
The Turkish-backed Syrian National Army also took part in the offensive, and fighting continues between the SNA and the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces in the north-east of the country. Ankara has considerable control over the SNA and other groups and can be expected to seek influence over its neighbor’s future direction.
“The opposition is not a homogeneous movement and there is a risk that the internal divisions of the umbrella movement led by HTS – which may become more pronounced in the coming weeks and months – will cause disunity and threaten the stability of Syria,” Burcu. Ozcelik of the UK’s Royal United Services Institute told ABC News.
Abu Mohammed al-Jolani, leader of the Syrian Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, addresses a crowd at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, Syria, on December 8, 2024.
Abdulaziz Ketaz/AFP via Getty Images
“A new Syrian transitional administration will soon have to take on the task of state-building, including rebuilding the Syrian national security force and a constitution-building process, as the Syrian state has been painfully sanctified by the Assad regime.” said Ozceli.
The incoming government will also have to address the issue of Russia’s presence in Syria. Russian forces maintain control of the Khmeimim air base and the Tartus naval base on Syria’s Mediterranean coast, two key strategic facilities that helped Moscow keep Assad in power.
“It is in Russia’s interest to maintain access, but its ability to project power in and across Syria is now severely weakened,” Ozceli said.
“It will take time and negotiations with the new Syrian administration, the entity that is still to be determined, until it becomes clear what Russia’s stakes in Syria will be,” added Ozceli. “But today it is a radically transformed Syria, and Russia does not have a good chance.”
Moscow is in contact with opposition factions, the Russian Foreign Ministry said in a statement on Sunday. “All the necessary measures are being taken to ensure the safety of our citizens in Syria,” he said. “Russian military bases in Syria are on high alert. There is currently no serious threat to their security.”
For Tehran, “there is no doubt that the fall of the Assad regime is a huge failure for Iran,” Ozceli said. “Syria was a channel for Iran’s systematic support to Hezbollah in Lebanon, this supply chain is now cut off.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said Tehran is worried about “the possibility of a new civil war or a sectarian war between different sects or the possibility of Syria being divided and Syria falling and becoming a haven for terrorists.”
Meanwhile, the territory liberated by the rebels is already being bombed by Israeli planes and occupied by Israeli soldiers. Israeli officials have said they plan to deny “extremist” elements access to the Assad regime’s advanced military capabilities.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the fall of the regime “is a direct result of the blows we have dealt to Iran and Hezbollah, the main supporters of the Assad regime.”
“The fall of the Assad regime, the tyranny of Damascus, offers great opportunities, but it is fraught with significant risks,” he added.
Assad’s legacy
Assad fled the country for Russia early Sunday, state Russian media said, as he stepped down as president after negotiations with opposition factions, according to a Russian Foreign Ministry statement.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov announced Monday that President Vladimir Putin would grant his longtime ally political asylum in the country.
Assad’s departure ended 24 years of his rule and 50 years of the Assad family’s rule. Jubilant crowds across the country were throwing down posters and statues of Assad, his brothers and his father, Hafez Assad.
More than a decade of civil war left at least 307,000 dead by the end of 2022, according to United Nations figures. The fighting forced about 12 million Syrians — more than half of the population of about 22 million in 2011 — from their homes, with an estimated 5.4 million living abroad by the end of 2022.
People celebrate a large Syrian opposition flag in Umayyad Square in Damascus, Syria, on December 9, 2024.
Omar Haj Kadour/AFP via Getty Images
Assad’s regime fought hard to maintain control of much of the country during the heated phase of the civil war. But his victory was pyrrhic.
The northern city of Aleppo fell to Idlib rebels on November 29, a shocking development that sparked renewed rebel uprisings across the country.
In Daraa — known as the “Cradle of the Syrian Revolution” for its role in the 2011 unrest — opposition groups rose again and marched on the capital.
“Damascus has been liberated and the tyrant Bashar Assad has been overthrown, and prisoners oppressed in regime prisons have been released,” a rebel spokesman said at the headquarters of state television in Damascus after opposition forces seized the building.
“We call on people and fighters to protect all assets of Free Syria,” the spokesman added. “Long live a free Syria for all Syrians of all sects.”
ABC News’ Hami Hamedi, Ellie Kaufman, Luis Martinez and Lauren Minore contributed to this report.
