The first surprising sentence The Communist Manifesto Released in 1848 – A specter haunts Europe – the specter of communism – has long been a historical anecdote. Even the left fringe has no illusions about the unity of the proletariat.
However, a different picture is visible in Europe – the specter of a nuclear escalation of the Ukrainian war.
Illustration: GOCMEN / Getty Images
It disrupts the EU bureaucracy, even a moderately efficient machine at the best of times. It establishes defense spending increases in every state budget at the expense of priorities dear to many lobbyists and activists. It even prevents and prompts President Vladimir Putin to demand a long-promised visit to Ankara accompanied by Russian fighters.
Oscillation over tension
At the beginning of the war, Putin himself called this dream, which threatened the West with its consequences.you have never seen in all your history” if he tried to stop her aggression. A large-scale exercise of Russian strategic forces in October, rescheduled from the usual window to February 2022, should add credence to this warning. The West nevertheless rallied to Ukraine’s support, with Moscow’s completely unexpected unity and determination, and Putin’s next attempts ups the ante brinksmanship was more effective than his first demarche. The trend in Russia’s approach to nuclear threats has been one of hesitation, not escalation, and as Putin has promised, the latest peak of this trajectory will be reached on September 12, 2024.make appropriate decisions” in response to what he described as NATO going to war with Russia.
Putin’s reasoning that the upcoming decision to give Ukraine the right to use longer-range missiles to strike Russia from the West will change dramatically.the essence of the conflict, the essence” is strategically dubious and nonsense as a political discourse. The Kremlin still refuses to call the war by its name, instructing its propaganda machine to stick to the phrase “special military operation” (usually abbreviated to SVO), and it’s impossible to imagine how one or a series of missile strikes could change its ambiguous nature. The US-supplied MGM-140 ATACMS tactical missile has a range of 300 km and can target some Russian targets. forward air basesbut it certainly cannot reach such strategic bases Engels or Olenyarepeatedly hit by Ukrainian drones. There are deep oil refineries on the territory of Russia goes up in flames more and more often, and the remnants of the Black Sea Fleet are forced to leave not only Sevastopol, but also the main base. Novorossiysk.
Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region
What really changed the course and even the character of the protracted war was the fact that on August 6, Ukraine entered the Kursk region and occupied a large part of Russian territory. enemy occupation. Instead of calling mobilization Aiming to liberate the homeland, Putin preferred to reduce the disaster. Caught up in the concept of controlling the strategic initiative, the Russian Supreme Commander decided to continue attacks on Pokrovsk in Donbass and “robbers” from the Kursk region. Six weeks after its implementation, the strategy has failed on both counts: Ukraine’s defenses around Pokrovsk are still in place, while Russia’s counterattacks Kursk front they face stiff resistance.
Neither this embarrassing fiasco nor the Ukrainian strikes Moscow oil refinery It is considered worthy by Putin to threaten nuclear escalation. His tendency to appeal to the image of “red lines” backfired, and President Vladimir Zelensky made many international headlines with his “mockery.A sick old man in Red Square” tries to draw such boundaries. Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov tried to warn to joke on Russia’s “red lines,” but its diplomatic posturing has sounded empty, especially as China insists on pushing its own initiative unused first of nuclear weapons.
The calm on Russia’s border has ended with Putin’s démarche aimed at distorting Western decisions on Ukraine’s missile strikes. meeting was scheduled US President Joe Biden and Great Britain Prime Minister Keir Starmer discussed this topic. Biden saw fit to deny the blackmail by claiming he wasn’t “I think a lot about Putin”, but the decision is still up to Kiev disappointment. There is, of course, no need to elaborate on granting Zelensky’s petition, but careful hands-on work with Ukrainian forces is needed to accurately target upcoming strikes and minimize civilian casualties.
Unity among NATO allies
The best response to Putin’s renewed appeal against nuclear threats will be a strong show of unity among NATO allies, and the US-UK meetings, however important, cannot fully fulfill that requirement. Chancellor Olaf Scholz, shaken by defeats in regional elections in Saxony and Thuringia, Germany’s position remains important and ambivalent. avoid decision About the supply of Taurus KEPD 350 missile to Ukraine. Experts in Moscow They are studying the political battles in Germany very carefully, checking whether this weak link in the pro-Ukraine coalition has surrendered.
The transformation of nuclear deterrence is a topic of much more attention in Russian expert debates than one would expect from such a sensitive and confidential issue. Characteristically, Sergey KaraganovSelf-described as the cause of nuclear escalation, he remained silent on the issue of Ukraine’s attack on the Kursk region, but immediately resumed his claim after Putin’s statements about the imminent direct confrontation with NATO. such as sober and respected experts Alexey Arbatov They warn of the mistake Western policy can make in assuming Russia will never launch a nuclear strike.
Overestimating Russia’s readiness to start a nuclear war and bowing to Putin’s blackmail would indeed be a bigger mistake than ignoring the threat and assuming that general strategic thinking in Moscow will always prevail.
Multiple-choice risk assessments must be updated with every twist and turn in the ever-changing trajectory of war, and messaging is a key tool of war. mind game prevention should be fine-tuned accordingly. Putin is the restless, ambitious, and often misinformed counterpart in a fluid conflict in which his seizure of power is pitted against humanity’s survival. NATO can absorb the resources to deny it victory in the war it is preparing, but a broader coalition is needed to overcome the specter of nuclear catastrophe.
- Pavel K. Baev He is a research professor at PRIO
- This text was first published by Panorama September 20, 2024
