Two years of territorial changes in Donbas
Source: New York Times, analysis of data from the Institute for the Study of War with the American Enterprise Institute’s Critical Threats Project
Note: From October 29
by the New York Times
For much of the past year, Russian troops have staged bloody attacks on Ukrainian positions, often with only limited gains. But the relentless offensive is now starting to pay off: In October, Russia made its biggest territorial gain since the summer of 2022 as Ukrainian lines buckled under sustained pressure.
Last month, Russian forces seized more than 160 square miles of territory in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine. The main theater of war today. This allowed them to control strategic cities that anchored Ukrainian defenses in the region. The leader of Vuh in early October. Last week the battle at Selydove was gone, now it seems lost.
Experts say the breakthroughs, among the fastest of the war, will help the Russian military protect its flanks before launching a military operation. Attack on the city of PokrovskThe main logistics center for Ukrainian forces in Donbas.
Russia’s rapid advance is a striking change from last year front lines remained largely staticboth sides launched ambitious attacks that largely failed.
But the stagnation that defined 2023 laid the foundation for Russia’s recent advances. While successes have been few and far between, Russia’s offensive has gradually weakened Ukraine’s military, which has become so stretched that it can no longer hold some of its positions, Ukrainian soldiers and military analysts say.
Pasi Paroinen, a military expert at the Finland-based Blackbird Group, believes that half of Russia’s territorial gains in Ukraine this year have come in the past three months alone. “The situation in South-Eastern Donbass is rapidly deteriorating,” he said.
Russia made a series of small gains in this southeastern pocket of Donbas in July. He set his sights on Pokrovsk, a key rail and road hub for supplying Ukraine’s troops in the region.
In August, Ukrainian defense lines buckled and Russia quickly advanced 10 miles toward Pokrovsk, closing in on Selidov from the west and north.
Russia’s advance toward Pokrovsk slowed as it encountered several Ukrainian defense lines, and Kiev sent reinforcements. Instead of attacking Pokrovsk head-on, Russia tried to flank it from the south, entrenching itself around Selydove. Further south, he captured Vuhledar, a hilltop fortress town, after nearly besieging it.
Over the past month, Russia has completed its march to Selydove and appears to have captured it this week. He also advanced on Kurakhov from three directions to push Ukrainian forces out of the city.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute
Note: From October 29
by the New York Times
Mr. Paroinen likened the relentless attacks that Ukrainian forces must try to repel to a continuous game of “mole,” with new flashpoints emerging faster than they can be resolved. This allows Russia to advance quickly when it finds a weak spot.
Vincent Turret, an analyst at the French Foundation for Strategic Studies, points to other factors contributing to Russia’s advance, including its increased use of powerful guided bombsable to destroy fortified enemy positions and a Lack of Ukrainian fortifications in the area where the fighting is going on.
“Ukraine’s defenses are becoming more fragmented, the terrain is more favorable for Russian attacks, and the Russians are doing better with guided bombs,” Mr Turret said. “Three factors combine to explain the growth in Russia’s earnings.”
Ukrainian forces have also suffered from severe manpower shortages, which have left them far outnumbered on the battlefield. To solve the problem, Oleksandr Litvynenko, Secretary of the National Security and Defense Council of Ukraine, told the parliament It said on Tuesday an additional 160,000 men would be called up for military service, bringing the union’s manpower to 85 percent.
Over the last few months or so, Russian forces have breached Ukrainian strongholds that have been fighting protracted battles, e.g. Chasiv Yar. For a long time, Russian troops blocked the canal separating the city from the outside, which served as a natural barrier for the Ukrainians. But recently, According to the UK Ministry of DefenceIt is “highly probable” that Russia “crossed the channel and approached the borders of the city”.
Elsewhere, the Russian military has used siege tactics to force Ukrainian forces to retreat, such as in Selidov. Serhii Kuzan, chairman of the Ukrainian Center for Security and Cooperation, a non-governmental research group, said Selydove protects Pokrovsk’s southern flank and its capture would help Russia deploy artillery and secure supply routes there.
The semi-circles formed around the cities by Russia’s encirclement tactics have given the front line in Donbas a jagged appearance.
Donbass, which consists of Luhansk and Donetsk, Ukraine’s easternmost regions, has long been a key target for Russia.
Source: Institute for the Study of War with the Critical Threats Project of the American Enterprise Institute
Note: From October 29
By The New York Times
According to military experts, Russia’s recent rapid advance points to another weakness in Ukraine: a lack of fortifications.
After capturing the fortress town of Vuhledar earlier this month, Russian forces faced mostly open terrain with sparse Ukrainian defense lines and few urban areas where Ukrainian troops could entrench themselves to put up stiff resistance. In the past week, Russia has advanced about six miles north of Vuhledar—at an unusual rate compared to previous gains.
“The Russians have already left the old frontline and its extensive minefields behind, which stopped previous attacks against Vuhledar in 2023,” Mr Paroinen said.
To make matters worse, Ukraine has weakened its position in the Donbas, deploying experienced units from there to Russia’s Kursk region. surprise cross-border attack this summer.
Troops were often replaced by less experienced units that struggled to repel Russian attacks. Mr Turret noted that many of the units currently serving on the front lines in Donbas are from Ukraine’s Territorial Defense – a force made up mostly of civilians who have volunteered to fight Russian invaders in 2022, but lacks the training and equipment of regular army units.
Mr Paroinen said Russia’s recent rapid advance “supports the overall picture of Ukrainian forces: Reserves are low, many quality units are stuck in Kursk, and Russia has enough strength left to exploit weaknesses in the Ukrainian line”.
